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Querétaro – Cruz Azul1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Querétaro
1.44
Total xG
2.94
Cruz Azul
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Querétaro | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.46 | +0.46 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.29 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 2 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Santiago Homenchenko not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Carlos Rodríguez on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Fernández on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jeremy Márquez on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alan Mozo Rodríguez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Goals: Cruz Azul averages 2 goals per away game in the league this season, while Querétaro averages 1.4 at home
- Tactics: Cruz Azul averaged 56.6% possession over the last 5 games, while Querétaro had 39.2%
- Head-to-head: In 4 meetings since 2024, Cruz Azul has 2 wins and there were 2 draws
Risks
- Away: Cruz Azul concedes 1.67 goals per away game in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Querétaro35%
Draw28%
Cruz Azul38%
Double chance
Querétaro or draw62%
Cruz Azul or draw65%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.44 : 1.51, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Querétaro: 3.5 cards per game (37 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Cruz Azul: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
Querétaro 4-2-3-1 · Cruz Azul 4-2-3-1
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 24 B. Duarte
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 8 B. Parra Camacho
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 11 M. Coronel
- 7 I. Benito Sánchez
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
Cruz Azul
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 55 Rogelio González
- 33 G. Piovi
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 10 A. Montaño
- 11 O. Ebere
- 7 N. Ibáñez
Substitutes
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 28 J. Arellano Camacho
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 23 J. Robles
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 20 A. Alcalá Solorio
- 30 J. Martínez Jr.
- 17 D. Muñoz Bustamante
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 18 L. Romero
- 29 C. Rotondi
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 2 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
- 22 J. Rodarte Barragán
- 60 A. Castro Sevilla
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