Match report →
Tijuana – Santos Laguna4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Tijuana
1.45
Total xG
2.86
Santos Laguna
1.41
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tijuana | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.46 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.38 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.38 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| G. Mora Zambrano not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Tahiel Jiménez on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 32% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Head-to-head: Both teams have 2 wins each from 4 previous meetings
- Table: Santos Laguna are 9th with 19 points from 13 games, Tijuana are 11th with 17 points from 12 games
- Attack: Tijuana score 1.43 goals per home game in the league, Santos Laguna score 1.5 per away game
Risks
- Form: Santos Laguna won all 5 of their last 5 games, while Tijuana failed to win any of their last 5
- Squad: G. Mora Zambrano is absent, having scored 5 of the 17 league goals for Tijuana players this season (29%)
All probabilities
Result
Tijuana37%
Draw28%
Santos Laguna35%
Double chance
Tijuana or draw65%
Santos Laguna or draw63%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.45 : 1.40, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Tijuana: 35% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 17)
- Tijuana: 5 of 17 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
Lineups
Tijuana 5-4-1 · Santos Laguna 5-4-1
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 11 F. González
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 28 J. Pérez Sánchez
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
- 26 R. Sordo
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 23 F. Cáseres
- 10 E. Bullaude
- 20 E. Lozano Solana
Substitutes
- 13 E. Alves de Paula
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 18 A. Mejía Montoya
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 202 J. González Cera
- 34 F. Boya
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
- 14 E. Orona Zavala
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 5 A. López Vargas
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 33 H. Holguín
- 77 K. Palacios Salazar
- 29 T. Jiménez Sánchez
- 193 L. Gómez Bernal
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