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Monterrey – Guadalajara1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Monterrey
1.44
Total xG
2.72
Guadalajara
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monterrey | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.25 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.22 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Óliver Torres on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Brian Gutiérrez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Monterrey scores 2.17 goals per game at home in the league this season, Guadalajara 1.5 away
- Form: Monterrey won 3 of its last 5 matches, Guadalajara won 1
Risks
- Table: Guadalajara ranks 2nd in the league with 23 points, Monterrey 7th with 20 points
- Defense: Guadalajara conceded 0.92 goals per game in the league this season, Monterrey 1.42 per game
All probabilities
Result
Monterrey39%
Draw29%
Guadalajara32%
Double chance
Monterrey or draw68%
Guadalajara or draw61%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.44 : 1.28, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monterrey: 70% of all goals in the first half (16 of 23, last 12 games)
- Monterrey: 35% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (8 of 23)
- Guadalajara: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Guadalajara: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Monterrey 4-1-3-2 · Guadalajara 3-4-2-1
Monterrey
- 1 E. Andrada
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 25 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
- 99 H. Cuypers
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 6 O. Govea García
- 5 B. González
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 30 S. Sandoval Loboa
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
Substitutes
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 14 E. Aguirre Tafolla
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 33 J. Medina Ramírez
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 10 L. Orellano
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 14 H. Camberos Figueroa
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 57 J. Hernandez
- 59 C. Inda Becerra
- 56 A. Chavez
- 46 C. Palomares
- 182 Leonel Calderón Oviedo
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