Match report →
Atlante – Atlético San Luis0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlante
1.55
Total xG
2.73
Atlético San Luis
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlante | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.16 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.16 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.07 | |
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Atlante scores 1.17 goals per game at home in the league this season, Atlético San Luis concedes 1.83 goals per game away
- Shots: Atlante averaged 5.8 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Atlético San Luis 4.8 shots on target per game
Risks
- Form: Atlético San Luis won 3 of their last 5 matches, Atlante won 2 of their last 5 matches
- Table: Atlético San Luis is 12th with 16 points in the league this season, Atlante is 15th with 14 points
All probabilities
Result
Atlante44%
Draw28%
Atlético San Luis27%
Double chance
Atlante or draw73%
Atlético San Luis or draw56%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.55 : 1.18, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlético San Luis: 7 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Atlante 5-3-2 · Atlético San Luis 3-4-3
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 6 N. Carrera
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 34 E. Jiménez Sánchez
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
Atlético San Luis
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 3 R. Alves de Barros
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 99 F. Mora Aliaga
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
Substitutes
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 32 D. Bagüí Tobar
- 13 M. García Pardo
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 16 J. González
- 22 R. Barragán Casillas
- 18 C. Bermúdez Gutiérrez
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 6 J. Ramírez López
- 7 B. Galdames Millán
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 16 L. Esteves Souza
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
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