Match report →
Necaxa – Juárez1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Necaxa
1.77
Total xG
2.81
Juárez
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Necaxa | Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.54 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.53 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.44 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Miguel Emilio Rodríguez Macías on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Away: Juárez concedes 3.33 goals per match away in the league this season and scored 0.5 per match in 6 matches
- Head-to-head: Necaxa recorded 2 wins and 2 draws in 4 head-to-head matches against Juárez
- Shots: Necaxa recorded 4.6 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Juárez 3.4 per match
Risks
- Form: Necaxa with 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in the last 5 matches
- Possession: Juárez recorded 49.8% possession per match in the last 5 matches, Necaxa 44.6% per match
All probabilities
Result
Necaxa53%
Draw26%
Juárez21%
Double chance
Necaxa or draw79%
Juárez or draw47%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.77 : 1.04, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Necaxa: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (12 points lost)
- Juárez: 3.4 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Juárez: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
Lineups
Necaxa 4-1-4-1 · Juárez 4-2-3-1
Necaxa
- 181 J. Orantes
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 210 J. Palacios Pulido
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 10 J. Ruiz
- 9 J. Carranza
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 26 D. Piña
- 183 L. Rodríguez
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Substitutes
- 15 D. Ochoa
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 2 E. Martínez González
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 6 D. Leyva
- 20 F. Méndez Lara
- 188 I. Tello Robles
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
- 27 M. Pedroza
- 208 L. Becerra Ramos
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 14 E. López Castro
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 16 J. Sigala García
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 27 G. Ruiz
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
- 250 Brayan Molina
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