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Pumas UNAM – Tigres UANL1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Pumas UNAM
1.27
Total xG
2.63
Tigres UANL
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pumas UNAM | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.26 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Pumas UNAM sits 12th in the league with 16 points from 13 games, Tigres UANL is 14th with 14 points
- Form: Pumas UNAM with 1 win from their last 5 games, Tigres UANL with 2 wins from their last 5 games
- Head-to-head: In the last 4 meetings, Pumas UNAM won 1, Tigres UANL won 2 and 1 ended in a draw
Risks
- Away form: Tigres UANL scored 0.71 goals per game in 7 away league games this season
- Rest days: Pumas UNAM with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Pumas UNAM33%
Draw29%
Tigres UANL37%
Double chance
Pumas UNAM or draw63%
Tigres UANL or draw67%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.27 : 1.36, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigres UANL: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Pumas UNAM 4-4-2 · Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 10 C. Huerta Valera
- 31 R. Morales
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 14 J. Garza García
- 15 A. Franco
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 19 M. Laínez Leyva
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 11 J. Brunetta
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
Substitutes
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 14 L. Herrera
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 15 I. Luna López
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 30 S. López López
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
- 9 E. Gómez Dutra
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
- 21 R. Monreal Morales
- 34 H. Koifman
- 184 I. Aceves Flores
- 192 E. Ávila
- 29 J. Contreras
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