Match report →
León – Toluca1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
León
1.46
Total xG
3.07
Toluca
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | León | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| Díber Cambindo on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexis Vega on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Paulinho on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Nicolás Castro on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Everardo del Villar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attack: Toluca scored 2.15 goals per match in the league this season, León concedes 1.5 per match at home
- Shots: Toluca averaged 24 shots per match (7.4 shots on target per match) in the last 5 matches
- Head-to-head: Toluca won 2 of 4 direct duels against León (with 2 draws)
Risks
- Form: Toluca without a win in the last 5 matches (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), León with 2 wins
- Match interval: Toluca with 2 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
León33%
Draw27%
Toluca40%
Double chance
León or draw60%
Toluca or draw67%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.583%
Under 1.517%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.46 : 1.61, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- León: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- León: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Toluca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Toluca: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- León: 6 of 18 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- León: 72% of all goals in the second half (13 of 18, last 12 games)
Lineups
León 4-1-4-1 · Toluca 4-2-3-1
León
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 13 D. Arcila
- 18 E. Guerra
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
Toluca
- 1 H. González Durán
- 19 S. Simón
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 5 F. Romero
- 35 É. Gutiérrez Galaviz
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 29 J. Díaz Price
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
Substitutes
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 23 O. García
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 8 J. Domínguez Chonteco
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 181 I. Gutiérrez
- 25 E. López
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 26 J. Dias Fernandes
- 7 V. Guzmán Guzmán
- 17 B. García Carpizo
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 8 N. Castro
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
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