Match report →
Santos Laguna – Necaxa1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Santos Laguna
1.84
Total xG
3.07
Necaxa
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos Laguna | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Attack strength (1.35x league average) | +0.42 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Julián Carranza on the bench (7 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Matías Espíndola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 44% of goal output missing (only 56% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Santos Laguna concedes 0.43 goals per game at home in the league this season, Necaxa concedes 2 goals per game away
- Form: Santos Laguna won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Necaxa remained winless in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Head-to-head: Necaxa won 3 of the 4 direct meetings between the two teams
- Attack: Necaxa generated 2.20 xG per game in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 1.2 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Santos Laguna50%
Draw26%
Necaxa24%
Double chance
Santos Laguna or draw76%
Necaxa or draw50%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.84 : 1.23, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Necaxa: dropped a lead in 6 of 6 games (14 points lost)
Lineups
Santos Laguna 5-4-1 · Necaxa 4-1-4-1
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 28 J. Pérez Sánchez
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 23 F. Cáseres
- 10 E. Bullaude
- 29 T. Jiménez Sánchez
Necaxa
- 181 J. Orantes
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 15 D. Ochoa
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 6 D. Leyva
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
Substitutes
- 20 E. Lozano Solana
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 5 A. López Vargas
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 24 D. Medina Vázquez
- 26 R. Sordo
- 33 H. Holguín
- 77 K. Palacios Salazar
- 193 L. Gómez Bernal
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 2 E. Martínez González
- 7 K. Ante Rosero
- 210 J. Palacios Pulido
- 20 F. Méndez Lara
- 9 J. Carranza
- 188 I. Tello Robles
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 21 M. Espíndola
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