Match report →
Guadalajara – Atlante4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Guadalajara
2.11
Total xG
2.99
Atlante
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Guadalajara | Atlante |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.33 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.31 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.29 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.18 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 4, 12 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 16, 12 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Ricardo Marín on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Brian Gutiérrez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Luis Fernando Puente Prado on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 84% available) |
Key factors
- Table: Guadalajara is 4th in the league this season with 26 points, Atlante is 16th with 14 points
- Home/Away: Guadalajara scores 1.57 goals per game at home in the league, Atlante concedes 1.43 goals per game away
Risks
- Shots: Atlante averaged 6.6 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Guadalajara 5.2 shots on target per game
- Attack: Atlante scored 1.2 goals per game in the last 5 games, Guadalajara 0.8 goals per game in the same period
All probabilities
Result
Guadalajara64%
Draw22%
Atlante13%
Double chance
Guadalajara or draw87%
Atlante or draw36%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
2:0
From xG 2.11 : 0.88, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Guadalajara: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
Guadalajara 3-4-2-1 · Atlante 5-3-2
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 6 O. Govea García
- 5 B. González
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 30 S. Sandoval Loboa
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 6 N. Carrera
- 32 D. Bagüí Tobar
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
Substitutes
- 11 B. Gutierrez
- 9 Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 2 J. Castillo Pérez
- 14 H. Camberos Figueroa
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 57 J. Hernandez
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 33 J. García Bonnet
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 13 M. García Pardo
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 16 J. González
- 34 E. Jiménez Sánchez
- 10 Octavio Vázquez
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