Match report →
América – Toluca2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
América
1.74
Total xG
3.18
Toluca
1.44
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | América | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.34 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.31 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Dagoberto Espinoza not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Álex Zendejas not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alexis Vega on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Paulinho on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 93% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: América has 2 wins from their last 5 matches, Toluca has 0 wins (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss)
- Defense: América concedes 0.86 goals per game at home in the league this season, Toluca 1.14 per game away
- Attack: América scored 2.43 goals per game in the league this season, Toluca 2.07 per game
Risks
- Rest days: América with 3 days since their last match, Toluca with 8 days
- Possession: Toluca averaged 65.8% possession and 22 shots per game in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
América44%
Draw26%
Toluca31%
Double chance
América or draw69%
Toluca or draw56%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.74 : 1.44, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- América: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- América with Henry Martin starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.5 (14/11 games, last 30)
Lineups
América 4-2-3-1 · Toluca 4-2-3-1
América
- 1 L. Malagón Velázquez
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 14 S. Bueno Sciutto
- 15 S. Ramos Mingo
- 24 F. Rossano Erchuk
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 8 C. Álvarez Rivera
- 22 ?. Perea Abonce
- 9 H. Martín Mex
Toluca
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 19 S. Simón
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 5 F. Romero
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 29 J. Díaz Price
- 8 N. Castro
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
Substitutes
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 2 E. Lara Contreras
- 26 C. Borja González
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 13 A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 32 M. Vázquez García
- 93 M. Borja Hernández
- 206 Derek Jiménez
- 25 E. López
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 26 J. Dias Fernandes
- 17 B. García Carpizo
- 1 H. González Durán
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 35 É. Gutiérrez Galaviz
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