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Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur - Nottingham Forest

03/22/2026, 02:15 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Tottenham Hotspur
1.8
Total xG
4.2
Nottingham Forest
2.4
Most Likely Scores

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

1:3

6%

2:1

6%

2:3

6%
What influences the xG?
THNF

Tottenham Hotspur

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Randal Kolo Muani on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Nottingham Forest

Attack strength (1.32x league average)
+1.77
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.24
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Rising form (1.7 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.09
14% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

21%

Away Win

51%

Goals

Over 1.5

93%

Under 1.5

7%

Over 2.5

78%

Under 2.5

22%

Over 3.5

60%

Under 3.5

40%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

49%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

76%

No

24%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Nottingham Forest with a 51% probability
  • High-scoring Games at the Venue: The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium recorded an average of 4.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with 100% BTTS and over 2.5 goals
  • Nottingham's Positive Form and Head-to-Head Strength: Nottingham Forest won 3 of 5 direct encounters and shows a positive form trend
Risk Factors
  • Nottingham Forest has only 3 days since their last match
  • Nottingham Forest scores only 0.93 goals per game on average this season
Overview

Tottenham Hotspur (16th place, 30 points) host Nottingham Forest (17th place, 29 points) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Premier League match on March 22, 2026, 3:15 PM

Both teams are in the lower half of the table, fighting for crucial points in the relegation battle

Form

Tottenham Hotspur's last five games show a form of LLLDW (1 Win, 1 Draw, 3 Losses)

Nottingham Forest's last five games show a form of LDLDW (1 Win, 2 Draws, 2 Losses)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Tottenham's recent form trend is stable, with a consistent 1.6 goals per game

Nottingham Forest shows a positive form trend, currently scoring more frequently (1.7 goals) than their season average (1.4 goals)

Statistics

Tottenham Hotspur scores an average of 1.33 goals per game and concedes 1.57 goals

At home, they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.79 goals conceded

Nottingham Forest scores an average of 0.93 goals per game and concedes 1.43 goals

Away from home, they average 0.94 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per game

The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has seen an average of 4.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches

In these 5 matches, both teams scored, and there were always over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, Tottenham Hotspur secured 2 wins and Nottingham Forest achieved 3 wins

Tottenham Hotspur scored 6 goals, while Nottingham Forest scored 7 goals

The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended with a 3-0 victory for Nottingham Forest

Key Players

For Tottenham Hotspur, key players include:

Richarlison (Attacker) with 9 season goals and 4 assists, with an average rating of 6.99

Cristian Romero (Defender) with 4 season goals and 1 assist, with an average rating of 7.03

Pape Matar Sarr (Midfielder) with 2 season goals and 3 assists, with an average rating of 6.85

For Nottingham Forest, notable players are:

Morgan Gibbs-White (Midfielder) with 8 season goals and 2 assists, with an average rating of 6.95

Elliot Anderson (Midfielder) with 2 season goals and 2 assists, with an average rating of 7.26

Callum Hudson-Odoi (Attacker) with 3 season goals and 2 assists, with an average rating of 6.85

Goalkeepers

Tottenham Hotspur's goalkeeper, Guglielmo Vicario, has a season average rating of 6.71 and 7 clean sheets

Nottingham Forest's goalkeeper, Matz Sels, has a season average rating of 6.70 and also 7 clean sheets

Influences

Tottenham Hotspur scores an average of 1.29 goals at home and concedes 1.79 goals

Nottingham Forest scores an average of 0.94 goals away and concedes 1.5 goals

The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is known for high-scoring games, averaging 4.2 goals in the last five matches

In all of these five matches, both teams scored, and there were over 2.5 goals

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