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Pachuca – Tigres UANL3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Pachuca
1.41
Total xG
2.65
Tigres UANL
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pachuca | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.34 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.24 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Joaquim Henrique Pereira Silva not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Pachuca scores 1.67 goals per game at home in the league this season, Tigres UANL 0.75 goals per game away
- Both teams to score: Pachuca concedes 2.17 goals per game at home in the league this season, Tigres UANL 1.5 goals per game away
Risks
- Form: Tigres UANL recorded 2 wins in the last 5 games, Pachuca suffered 3 defeats in the last 5 games
- Shots on target: Tigres UANL averages 6.8 shots on target per game in the last 5 games, Pachuca 3.6 per game
All probabilities
Result
Pachuca39%
Draw29%
Tigres UANL32%
Double chance
Pachuca or draw68%
Tigres UANL or draw61%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.40 : 1.25, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
5%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Pachuca: 3.8 cards per game (39 yellows, 3 reds in 11 games)
- Pachuca: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Pachuca: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Tigres UANL: 5 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Pachuca 4-2-3-1 · Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 14 J. Garza García
- 15 A. Franco
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 19 M. Laínez Leyva
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 9 E. Gómez Dutra
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 11 J. Brunetta
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
Substitutes
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 12 S. Santos
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 29 R. Nunes do Nascimento
- 211 C. Alcántara
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 206 T. Hernández
- 221 Ulises Martínez
- 207 Ian Josué Zavala Osorio
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
- 21 R. Monreal Morales
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 34 H. Koifman
- 184 I. Aceves Flores
- 29 J. Contreras
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