Match report →
Puebla – Pumas UNAM1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Puebla
1.28
Total xG
2.51
Pumas UNAM
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Puebla | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | −0.70 | |
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −0.70 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Mathías Tomás on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Puebla is 14th with 16 points from 14 games, Pumas UNAM is 12th with 17 points from 14 games
- Shots on target: Both teams averaged 3.6 shots on target per game over their last 5 games
Risks
- Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM won 3 of the 4 meetings since September 2024, with 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Puebla36%
Draw30%
Pumas UNAM34%
Double chance
Puebla or draw66%
Pumas UNAM or draw64%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.28 : 1.23, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Puebla: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Puebla 4-2-3-1 · Pumas UNAM 4-4-2
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 14 E. Armenta Palma
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 10 C. Huerta Valera
- 31 R. Morales
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
Substitutes
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
- 26 K. Velasco Bonilla
- 34 L. Azevedo da Silva
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 14 L. Herrera
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 15 I. Luna López
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 30 S. López López
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
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