Match report →
Cruz Azul – León2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Cruz Azul
1.69
Total xG
3.20
León
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruz Azul | León |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Rising form (3.2 vs 2 season average) | +0.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.18 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.18 | |
| Attack strength (1.25x league average) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.00 | |
| Nicolás Ibáñez on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alan Mozo Rodríguez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Díber Cambindo on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Fernando Beltrán on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Standings: Cruz Azul is 4th with 26 points from 14 matches, León is 7th with 22 points from 14 matches
- Home/Away: Cruz Azul averages 2.43 goals per game at home in the league this season, León 1.14 per game away
- Head-to-head: Cruz Azul won 4 of the 5 previous meetings, León won 1 match
Risks
- Defense: León has conceded 1.29 goals per game in the league this season, Cruz Azul 1.64 per game
- Away: León has conceded 1.14 goals per game away in the league this season, Cruz Azul 1.71 per game at home
All probabilities
Result
Cruz Azul41%
Draw26%
León33%
Double chance
Cruz Azul or draw67%
León or draw59%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.69 : 1.51, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- León: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- León: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Cruz Azul: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- León: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- León: 37% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 19)
Lineups
Cruz Azul 5-4-1 · León 4-3-3
Cruz Azul
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 55 Rogelio González
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 33 G. Piovi
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 10 A. Montaño
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
León
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 13 D. Arcila
- 18 E. Guerra
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
- 11 I. Díaz De León
Substitutes
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 18 L. Romero
- 20 J. Paradela
- 29 C. Rotondi
- 7 N. Ibáñez
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 2 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 22 J. Rodarte Barragán
- 11 O. Ebere
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 23 O. García
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 8 J. Domínguez Chonteco
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 181 I. Gutiérrez
- 247 I. Salinas
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