Match report →
Monterrey – Tijuana3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Monterrey
1.76
Total xG
2.86
Tijuana
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monterrey | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.75 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Orbelín Pineda not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Yael Padilla on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alejandro Gómez not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Monterrey scores 1.86 goals per game at home in the league, Tijuana concedes 1.83 per game away
- Rest days: Monterrey had 7 days of rest before this match, Tijuana played 3 days ago
- Possession: Monterrey averaged 54.8% possession over the last 5 matches, Tijuana 39%
Risks
- Head-to-head: Tijuana is undefeated in the 4 previous meetings with 1 win and 3 draws
- Form: Tijuana remained undefeated in their last 5 matches with 1 win and 4 draws
All probabilities
Result
Monterrey51%
Draw26%
Tijuana22%
Double chance
Monterrey or draw78%
Tijuana or draw49%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.76 : 1.11, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tijuana: dropped a lead in 5 of 8 games (11 points lost)
- Tijuana: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Monterrey: 65% of all goals in the first half (13 of 20, last 11 games)
- Monterrey with Diego Rossi starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.3 (10/18 games, last 30)
- Monterrey: 30% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 20)
Lineups
Monterrey 4-2-3-1 · Tijuana 5-4-1
Monterrey
- 1 E. Andrada
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 99 H. Cuypers
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 11 F. González
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
Substitutes
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 14 E. Aguirre Tafolla
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 33 J. Medina Ramírez
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 10 L. Orellano
- 203 A. De Nigris González
- 244 P. Ruffin Tamez
- 13 E. Alves de Paula
- 10 G. Mora Zambrano
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 202 J. González Cera
- 34 F. Boya
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 188 A. Magallón
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