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Atlético San Luis – Atlas0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético San Luis
1.66
Total xG
2.87
Atlas
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético San Luis | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.10 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Kevin Zenón on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ryan Mmaee on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Form: Atlético San Luis with 3 wins from their last 5 matches in Liga MX
- Attack: Atlas scored 2.4 goals per match in their last 5 matches, Atlético San Luis 1.6 goals per match
Risks
- Table: Atlas is 4th in the league with 24 points from 14 matches, Atlético San Luis is 11th with 19 points
- Away: Atlas scored 2.17 goals per match away in the league this season, Atlético San Luis conceded 1.57 per match at home
All probabilities
Result
Atlético San Luis46%
Draw27%
Atlas27%
Double chance
Atlético San Luis or draw73%
Atlas or draw54%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.66 : 1.21, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlas with Florián Monzón starting: 1.9 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (11/19 games, last 30)
- Atlético San Luis: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Atlas: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Atlético San Luis 3-4-2-1 · Atlas 5-3-2
Atlético San Luis
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 3 R. Alves de Barros
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 7 B. Galdames Millán
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
- 99 F. Mora Aliaga
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 3 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 19 A. Frías
- 28 M. Capasso
- 44 J. Sánchez Purata
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 9 F. Monzón
- 203 José Martín
Substitutes
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 6 J. Ramírez López
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 20 L. Flores
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 16 L. Esteves Souza
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
- 20 K. Zenon
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 4 A. Mora Barraza
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 17 J. Lozano Silva
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 26 A. Rocha González
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 58 A. González González
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
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