Match report →
Juárez – Querétaro3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Juárez
1.35
Total xG
2.63
Querétaro
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juárez | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 9, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 18, 9 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.01 | |
| José Luis Rodríguez on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Santiago Homenchenko not in squad (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 84% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Juárez concedes 1.71 goals per game at home in the league this season, Querétaro scores 1.29 per game away
- Shots: Juárez recorded 3.4 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, Querétaro 3.8 per game
- Head-to-head: In 4 meetings, there was 1 win for Juárez, 2 wins for Querétaro, and 1 draw
Risks
- Table: Querétaro is 9th with 20 points from 13 games, Juárez is 18th with 5 points from 14 games
All probabilities
Result
Juárez37%
Draw29%
Querétaro34%
Double chance
Juárez or draw66%
Querétaro or draw63%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.35 : 1.28, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juárez: 3.4 cards per game (36 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Juárez: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Querétaro: 3 cards per game (32 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Juárez: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Juárez 5-3-2 · Querétaro 4-2-3-1
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 26 D. Piña
- 14 E. López Castro
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 183 L. Rodríguez
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 8 B. Parra Camacho
- 17 D. Muñoz Bustamante
- 11 M. Coronel
- 7 I. Benito Sánchez
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
Substitutes
- 6 Monchu
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 198 R. Mendoza
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 10 Í. Torres Ramírez
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 27 G. Ruiz
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 28 J. Arellano Camacho
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 23 J. Robles
- 24 B. Duarte
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 20 A. Alcalá Solorio
- 30 J. Martínez Jr.
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