Match report →
Necaxa – Tijuana1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Necaxa
1.45
Total xG
2.75
Tijuana
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Necaxa | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.26 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.23 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 6, 11 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 17, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.03 | |
| Matías Espíndola on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Alan Vega on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- xG: Necaxa registered 2.16 xG per match in 5 matches with xG data, but scored 0.8 goals per match
- Home/Away: Tijuana conceded 2 goals per match away in the league this season, Necaxa 1.88 per match at home
- Shots: Necaxa averaged 5.8 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Tijuana 4.4 per match
Risks
- Table: Tijuana is 6th in the league this season with 22 points, Necaxa is 17th with 10 points
- Form: Tijuana had 1 win and 4 draws in the last 5 matches, Necaxa suffered 3 losses and 2 draws
All probabilities
Result
Necaxa39%
Draw29%
Tijuana32%
Double chance
Necaxa or draw68%
Tijuana or draw61%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.45 : 1.30, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Necaxa: dropped a lead in 6 of 6 games (14 points lost)
- Tijuana: dropped a lead in 6 of 9 games (13 points lost)
- Tijuana: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Necaxa 4-1-4-1 · Tijuana 4-1-4-1
Necaxa
- 181 J. Orantes
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 15 D. Ochoa
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 6 D. Leyva
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 13 O. de Jesús González Ojeda
- 9 J. Carranza
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 11 F. González
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 10 G. Mora Zambrano
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
Substitutes
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 4 A. Peña López
- 210 J. Palacios Pulido
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 11 J. Torres Patiño
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
- 259 L. Arvizo Vargas
- 235 Leroy Davis IV
- 13 E. Alves de Paula
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 202 J. González Cera
- 34 F. Boya
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
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