Match report →
Atlas – Pachuca1 : 4
Why the model thinks so
Atlas
1.45
Total xG
2.84
Pachuca
1.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlas | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| Ryan Mmaee on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- xG: Atlas averages 1.47 xG per match in 15 games with xG data in the league, Pachuca 1.47 xG per match
- Attacking: Atlas scored 2 goals per match in their last 5 games, Pachuca 2 goals per match in their last 5 games
- Possession: Atlas had 49.2% possession in their last 5 games, Pachuca 49.0% possession in their last 5 games
Risks
- Table: Atlas is 4th with 27 points from 15 matches, Pachuca 12th with 19 points from 15 matches
- Defense: Pachuca concedes 0.75 goals per match away in the league this season, Atlas 2.12 goals per match at home
All probabilities
Result
Atlas37%
Draw28%
Pachuca35%
Double chance
Atlas or draw65%
Pachuca or draw63%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.45 : 1.39, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
2:2
6%
1:4
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Pachuca: 3.3 cards per game (34 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Pachuca: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
- Atlas with Florián Monzón starting: 1.8 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (12/18 games, last 30)
- Atlas: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Pachuca: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Atlas: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
Atlas 3-4-2-1 · Pachuca 4-2-3-1
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 19 A. Frías
- 28 M. Capasso
- 44 J. Sánchez Purata
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 18 E. Montiel
- 26 A. Rocha González
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 20 K. Zenon
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 9 F. Monzón
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Substitutes
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
- 4 A. Mora Barraza
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 17 J. Lozano Silva
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 192 J. Serrato Zambrano
- 203 José Martín
- 58 A. González González
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 12 S. Santos
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 29 R. Nunes do Nascimento
- 211 C. Alcántara
- 32 P. Budib Peniche
- 28 A. Arroyo Romero
- 206 T. Hernández
- 207 Ian Josué Zavala Osorio
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