Match report →
León – Guadalajara1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
León
1.40
Total xG
2.82
Guadalajara
1.42
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | León | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 3, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 9, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Ismael Díaz on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ricardo Marín on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Head-to-head: León and Guadalajara each won 2 matches in 4 direct meetings
- Attack: León and Guadalajara each scored 1.6 goals per game in their last 5 matches
- Shots on target: León averaged 5.2 shots on target per game in recent matches, Guadalajara 5.6 per game
Risks
- Table: Guadalajara has 29 points in 15 matches in the league this season, León has 22 points in 15 matches
- Form: Guadalajara recorded 3 wins and 0 losses in their last 5 matches, León 1 win and 2 losses
All probabilities
Result
León35%
Draw28%
Guadalajara36%
Double chance
León or draw64%
Guadalajara or draw65%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.40 : 1.42, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- León: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Guadalajara: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- León: 42% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (8 of 19)
- León: 74% of all goals in the second half (14 of 19, last 12 games)
- León: 6 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Guadalajara: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)
Lineups
León 4-4-2 · Guadalajara 3-4-2-1
León
- 23 O. García
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 13 D. Arcila
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 6 O. Govea García
- 5 B. González
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 30 S. Sandoval Loboa
Substitutes
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 18 E. Guerra
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 8 J. Domínguez Chonteco
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 203 J. Aldair Lara Sánchez
- 181 I. Gutiérrez
- 247 I. Salinas
- 11 B. Gutierrez
- 9 Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 2 J. Castillo Pérez
- 24 M. Gómez Ortiz
- 14 H. Camberos Figueroa
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
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