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Querétaro – Puebla0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Querétaro
1.74
Total xG
2.79
Puebla
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Querétaro | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.54 | +0.54 |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.21 | |
| Rising form (1.5 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.10 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.00 | |
| Enzo Giménez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Querétaro has 20 points from 14 games in the league this season, ahead of Puebla with 16 points from 15 games
- Head-to-head: Querétaro won 3 of the 4 meetings with Puebla (Puebla with 1 win)
- Form: Puebla is winless in their last 5 games with 2 draws and 3 losses
Risks
- Form: Querétaro lost 4 of their last 5 games (1 win)
- Defense: Querétaro conceded 1.5 goals per game at home in the league this season, Puebla 1.38 per game away
All probabilities
Result
Querétaro52%
Draw27%
Puebla21%
Double chance
Querétaro or draw79%
Puebla or draw48%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.74 : 1.05, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Puebla: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Querétaro: 2.9 cards per game (31 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
Lineups
Querétaro 4-2-3-1 · Puebla 4-4-1-1
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 24 B. Duarte
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 5 S. Homenchenko Bianchi
- 7 I. Benito Sánchez
- 11 M. Coronel
- 17 D. Muñoz Bustamante
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 26 K. Velasco Bonilla
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 14 E. Armenta Palma
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
Substitutes
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 8 B. Parra Camacho
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 28 J. Arellano Camacho
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 23 J. Robles
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 20 A. Alcalá Solorio
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 20 J. Pachuca Martinez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
- 34 L. Azevedo da Silva
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