Premier League
Leeds United - Brentford
03/21/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.2
1.7
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
8%2:2
7%0:2
5%What influences the xG?
Leeds United
Brentford
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
35%
Draw
26%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
65%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Brentford has a slight favorite role with a 39% win probability, compared to 35% for Leeds United
- Form trend according to Advanced Stats: Brentford's current goal production is 2.0 goals per game, above their season average of 1.7, while Leeds United's goal production stagnates at 1.0, compared to their season average of 1.5
- Table position: Brentford is in 7th place with 45 points, significantly ahead of Leeds United, who are in 15th place with 32 points
Risk Factors
- Brentford concedes an average of 1.92 goals per away game
- The low BTTS rate of 0.2 at Elland Road contradicts the pipeline prediction of 66% for 'Both teams to score'
- Limited data availability for total duels in the last 5 games for both teams
Overview
Leeds United (15th place, 32 points) host Brentford (7th place, 45 points) at Elland Road. Premier League match on March 21, 2026, 8:00 PM. Leeds is fighting against relegation, while Brentford is competing for international spots.
Form
Leeds United's form across all competitions shows DLLWD, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five games. Their last result was a 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace. Brentford's form is LWDDD, with one win, three draws, and one loss in their last five games. Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against Wolverhampton Wanderers. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Leeds United scores an average of 1.23 goals per game and concedes 1.6 goals per match this season. At home, the average is 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 goals conceded. Brentford scores an average of 1.53 goals and concedes 1.4 goals per game. Away, they score 1.54 times and concede 1.92 goals on average. Leeds kept 5 clean sheets, Brentford 7. Both teams scored in 18 Leeds games and 16 Brentford games. Leeds had over 2.5 goals in 16 games, Brentford in 15 games. Elland Road has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, both Leeds United and Brentford secured one win each, with three draws. Leeds scored 7 goals, while Brentford netted 9 goals. The last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. The recent record is even.
Key Players
For Leeds United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (10 goals, 1 assist), Lukas Nmecha (6 goals, 1 assist), and Anton Stach (4 goals, 3 assists) are key players in the starting lineup. Calvert-Lewin has a 'declining' form trend, Nmecha a 'rising' trend, and Stach a 'declining' trend. For Brentford, Igor Thiago (19 goals, 1 assist), Kevin Schade (7 goals, 3 assists), and Keane Lewis-Potter (3 goals, 2 assists) are in the starting XI. Igor Thiago's form trend is 'declining', Kevin Schade also shows a 'declining' trend, and Keane Lewis-Potter also has a 'declining' trend. Dango Ouattara (5 goals, 3 assists) and Mikkel Damsgaard (3 goals, 4 assists) are not in Brentford's lineup, which reduces the usual starting eleven strength by 12% of goal threat and 20% of assists.
Goalkeepers
Karl Darlow, Leeds United's goalkeeper, kept 5 clean sheets this season. Caoimhín Kelleher, Brentford's goalkeeper, achieved this in 7 games.
Influences
Leeds United has scored an average of 1.22 goals and conceded 1.11 goals in home games. Brentford has scored an average of 1.54 goals and conceded 1.92 goals in away games. The grass pitch at Elland Road is the playing surface. The last 5 games at the stadium averaged 2.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games.