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Pumas UNAM – América2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Pumas UNAM
1.17
Total xG
2.85
América
1.68
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pumas UNAM | América |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.63x league average) | +0.93 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.51 | +0.51 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.44 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Brian Rodríguez not in squad (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/away: América scores 3 goals per game away in the league this season, Pumas UNAM concedes 1.71 per game at home
- Table: América ranks 1st in Liga MX with 29 points from 15 games, Pumas UNAM 10th with 20 points from 15 games
Risks
- Defense: América has conceded 1.86 goals per game away in the league this season
- Form: Pumas UNAM suffered 1 defeat in the last 5 games, with 2 wins and 2 draws
All probabilities
Result
Pumas UNAM25%
Draw27%
América48%
Double chance
Pumas UNAM or draw52%
América or draw75%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.17 : 1.68, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- América: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- América with Henry Martin starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.5 (15/11 games, last 30)
- América: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Pumas UNAM 4-4-2 · América 4-2-3-1
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 10 C. Huerta Valera
- 31 R. Morales
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
América
- 1 L. Malagón Velázquez
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 15 S. Ramos Mingo
- 26 C. Borja González
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 13 A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
- 8 C. Álvarez Rivera
- 10 A. Zendejas Saavedra
- 22 ?. Perea Abonce
- 9 H. Martín Mex
Substitutes
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 14 L. Herrera
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 15 I. Luna López
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 30 S. López López
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 29 R. Del Castillo
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 217 Í. da Conceição
- 189 A. Cárdenas
- 93 M. Borja Hernández
- 206 Derek Jiménez
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