Match report →
Tigres UANL – Cruz Azul2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Tigres UANL
1.49
Total xG
2.98
Cruz Azul
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigres UANL | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.38x league average) | +0.54 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2 season average) | +0.30 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.20 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Carlos Rodríguez on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Fernández on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Agustín Palavecino on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Head-to-head: 1 win for Tigres UANL, 1 for Cruz Azul and 3 draws in 5 meetings
- Attack: Tigres UANL score 1.5 goals per home game in the league this season, Cruz Azul 2.14 per away game
- Shots: Both teams average 6.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
Risks
- Table: Cruz Azul are 3rd in the league this season with 29 points, Tigres UANL are 15th with 15 points
- Form: Cruz Azul have 4 wins from their last 5 games, Tigres UANL have 1 win
All probabilities
Result
Tigres UANL37%
Draw27%
Cruz Azul36%
Double chance
Tigres UANL or draw64%
Cruz Azul or draw63%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.49 : 1.48, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
6%
2:0
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruz Azul: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cruz Azul: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1 · Cruz Azul 5-4-1
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
- 19 M. Laínez Leyva
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 34 H. Koifman
- 11 J. Brunetta
- 9 E. Gómez Dutra
- 22 G. Martínez Ayala
Cruz Azul
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 22 J. Rodarte Barragán
- 33 G. Piovi
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 20 J. Paradela
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 18 L. Romero
- 10 A. Montaño
- 7 N. Ibáñez
Substitutes
- 14 J. Garza García
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
- 28 J. Pereira Silva
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
- 21 R. Monreal Morales
- 192 E. Ávila
- 29 J. Contreras
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 29 C. Rotondi
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 2 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
- 55 Rogelio González
- 11 O. Ebere
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