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Toluca – Monterrey4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Toluca
1.97
Total xG
3.27
Monterrey
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toluca | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.55x league average) | +0.79 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.49 | +0.49 |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.32 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Federico Viñas on the bench (8 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Jesús Corona on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Toluca average 2.57 goals per game at home in the league this season, Monterrey concede 1.67 per game away
- Head-to-head: Toluca won 4 of the 5 direct meetings, Monterrey won 1 match
Risks
- Form: Toluca are winless in their last 5 games (4 draws, 1 loss), Monterrey won 2 games in their last 5
- Attack: Monterrey scored 2 goals per game in their last 5 matches, Toluca conceded 1.8 per game in their last 5
All probabilities
Result
Toluca52%
Draw24%
Monterrey24%
Double chance
Toluca or draw76%
Monterrey or draw48%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.97 : 1.30, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toluca with Alexis Vega starting: 2.2 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (17/9 games, last 30)
- Monterrey: 68% of all goals in the first half (15 of 22, last 11 games)
- Monterrey: 32% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (7 of 22)
- Toluca: dropped a lead in 5 of 9 games (11 points lost)
- Monterrey with Diego Rossi starting: 2 goals/game, without him: 1.4 (11/17 games, last 30)
Lineups
Toluca 4-4-2 · Monterrey 4-2-3-1
Toluca
- 1 H. González Durán
- 17 B. García Carpizo
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 25 E. López
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 5 F. Romero
- 35 É. Gutiérrez Galaviz
- 8 N. Castro
- 26 J. Dias Fernandes
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
Monterrey
- 1 E. Andrada
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 25 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 99 H. Cuypers
Substitutes
- 16 F. Viñas Barboza
- 7 V. Guzmán Guzmán
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 15 P. Uriel Perez Hernandez
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 3 A. Briseño Vázquez
- 19 S. Simón
- 29 J. Díaz Price
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 14 E. Aguirre Tafolla
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 21 L. Reyes Moreno
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 33 J. Medina Ramírez
- 203 A. De Nigris González
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