Match report →
Atlético San Luis – Juárez0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlético San Luis
1.70
Total xG
2.74
Juárez
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético San Luis | Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.49 | |
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | +0.33 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| José Luis Rodríguez on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Atlético San Luis rank 13th with 19 points from 15 matches, Juárez rank 18th with 8 points from 15 matches
- Away: Juárez conceded 3 goals per match and scored 0.57 goals per match across 7 away league matches this season
Risks
- xG: Atlético San Luis allowed 1.90 xG per match across 5 matches with xG data, but conceded 1 goal per match
- Head-to-head: Juárez won 2 of the 4 previous meetings against Atlético San Luis, including the last match 2-1
All probabilities
Result
Atlético San Luis51%
Draw27%
Juárez22%
Double chance
Atlético San Luis or draw78%
Juárez or draw49%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.70 : 1.04, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
3:1
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juárez: 3.3 cards per game (35 yellows, 1 reds in 11 games)
- Atlético San Luis: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Juárez: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 11 total)
- Juárez: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Juárez: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 12 total)
Lineups
Atlético San Luis 3-4-2-1 · Juárez 4-2-3-1
Atlético San Luis
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 3 R. Alves de Barros
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 7 B. Galdames Millán
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
- 99 F. Mora Aliaga
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 26 D. Piña
- 14 E. López Castro
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 13 R. Dourado Cunha
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 183 L. Rodríguez
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Substitutes
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 6 J. Ramírez López
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 20 L. Flores
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
- 6 Monchu
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 198 R. Mendoza
- 7 R. Fulgencio Román
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 10 Í. Torres Ramírez
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 27 G. Ruiz
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
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