Match report →
Atlante – Santos Laguna0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlante
1.51
Total xG
2.74
Santos Laguna
1.24
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlante | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 8, 8 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 16, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Luis Fernando Puente Prado on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 88% available) | ||
| Tahiel Jiménez on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Away: Santos Laguna concede 2.43 goals per match away in the league this season
- Shots: Atlante average 6 shots on target per match in the last 5 matches, Santos Laguna 4.2 per match
Risks
- Form: Santos Laguna won 4 of their last 5 matches, Atlante 1 win from their last 5 matches
- Table: Santos Laguna are 8th in the league with 22 points, Atlante 16th with 14 points
All probabilities
Result
Atlante42%
Draw28%
Santos Laguna30%
Double chance
Atlante or draw70%
Santos Laguna or draw58%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.51 : 1.24, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlante: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
Lineups
Atlante 5-3-2 · Santos Laguna 5-4-1
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 6 N. Carrera
- 44 A. Quiroz
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 30 M. Sarrafiore
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 11 J. Moxica Chapa
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 28 J. Pérez Sánchez
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 23 F. Cáseres
- 10 E. Bullaude
- 20 E. Lozano Solana
Substitutes
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 14 C. Alfaro
- 33 J. García Bonnet
- 32 D. Bagüí Tobar
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 20 G. Adame
- 13 M. García Pardo
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 16 J. González
- 10 Octavio Vázquez
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 5 A. López Vargas
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 26 R. Sordo
- 33 H. Holguín
- 77 K. Palacios Salazar
- 29 T. Jiménez Sánchez
- 9 L. Di Yorio
- 193 L. Gómez Bernal
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