Premier League
Fulham - Burnley
03/21/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.5
0.9
1:1
13%1:0
12%2:0
11%0:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Fulham
Burnley
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
53%
Draw
28%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
47%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Fulham with a 53% probability for a home win, expecting 1.61 goals for themselves compared to 0.89 for Burnley
- Form: Fulham's recent form of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses is better than Burnley's 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
- Matchup Advantage: Fulham's home defensive strength (1.00 goals conceded per game) meets Burnley's weak away defense (2.19 goals conceded per away game)
Risk Factors
- Fulham's attacking strength is limited, with only 68% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available, notably without RaĂșl JimĂ©nez, Ryan Sessegnon, and Emile Smith Rowe
- Burnley shows low attacking threat with an average of 3.0 shots on target
- Burnley concedes an average of 2.19 goals per away game
Overview
Fulham (11th place, 41 points) host Burnley (19th place, 20 points) at Craven Cottage for a Premier League clash on March 21, 2026, 4:00 PM
Fulham are vying for a mid-table position
Burnley are deep in the relegation battle and desperately need points
Form
Fulham's current form across all competitions is WWLLD
This translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Their last match ended in a draw
Burnley's form is LDLLD
This means 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses
The visitors' last match also ended in a draw
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Fulham scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes 1.43 goals per game this season
At home, Fulham scores an average of 1.33 goals and concedes 1.00 goals
Fulham kept a clean sheet in 6 matches, and both teams scored in 18 matches
Burnley scores an average of 1.07 goals and concedes 1.93 goals per game this season
Away from home, Burnley scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 2.19 goals
Burnley kept a clean sheet in 4 matches, and both teams scored in 17 matches
Craven Cottage sees an average of 2.2 goals per game
In 60% of the last home games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fulham won 1, Burnley won 2, and there were 2 draws
Fulham scored a total of 6 goals, while Burnley scored 9 goals
The last encounter was won by Fulham on December 13, 2025, with a score of 3:2
Burnley has been the more dominant side in recent meetings
Key Players
For Fulham, Harry Wilson stands out, contributing 9 goals and 6 assists in 28 seasonal appearances with an average rating of 7.17, although his form is currently slightly declining
Alex Iwobi, also an attacking player, scored 4 goals and 3 assists in 24 games with a rating of 6.99; his form also shows a declining trend
Rodrigo Muniz has scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 13 appearances, with an average rating of 6.68 and a rising form curve
For Burnley, Jaidon Anthony is an important attacker with 7 goals and 1 assist in 29 appearances with a rating of 6.87, and his form is rising
Zian Flemming also scored 7 goals and 1 assist in 21 games, his form is slightly declining
Hannibal, in midfield, contributed 1 goal and 3 assists in 22 games and has a sharply rising form curve
Goalkeepers
Bernd Leno of Fulham made 30 seasonal appearances and kept 6 clean sheets
Martin DĂșbravka of Burnley also played in 30 season games and achieved 4 clean sheets
Influences
Fulham showed a solid performance at home with 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded per game
Burnley, however, conceded an average of 2.19 goals away from home
Craven Cottage is a venue where goals are often scored, with an average of 2.2 goals per game
The grass surface could influence the match