Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion - Liverpool
03/21/2026, 12:45 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.2
1.3
1:1
15%0:1
13%0:0
13%0:2
9%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Brighton & Hove Albion
Liverpool
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
24%
Draw
32%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
67%
Under 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
76%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
45%
No
55%
Key Factors
- Liverpool's stronger season performance and the 45% probability of an away win according to pipeline analysis
- Liverpool's historical dominance with 4 wins in 5 direct encounters
- Brighton's currently stagnating goal production of only 1.0 goals per game in recent form
Risk Factors
- Liverpool had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- M. Salah (5 goals/6 assists) is out for Liverpool due to injury
- K. Mitoma (2 goals/1 assist) is out for Brighton & Hove Albion due to injury
Overview
Brighton & Hove Albion (12th place, 40 points) host Liverpool (5th place, 49 points) at The American Express Community Stadium. Premier League match on March 21, 2026, 1:30 PM. Brighton aims for a mid-table finish, while Liverpool fights for an international qualification spot
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion's form in the last five games is LWWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team won 3 games and lost 2. Most recently, they secured a 1-0 away win against Sunderland, preceded by a 0-1 home loss to Arsenal. Liverpool's form in the last five games is LWLDW with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last match ended in a 4-0 home win against Galatasaray, following a 1-1 home draw against Tottenham Hotspur. According to advanced analysis, Brighton's goal production is currently stagnating at 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.3 goals per game. Liverpool's offense also shows a recent average of 1.8 goals per game, below their season average of 2.0 goals per game
Statistics
Brighton & Hove Albion averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per game. At home, they score 1.29 goals and concede 0.94 goals per game. Liverpool averages 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they score 1.69 goals and concede 1.77 goals per game. At The American Express Community Stadium, the last 5 games saw an average of 1.8 total goals per match. Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove Albion secured 1 win, while Liverpool claimed 4 wins. The goal difference stands at 6:12 in favor of Liverpool. The most recent encounter on February 14, 2026, resulted in a 0-3 loss for Brighton against Liverpool
Key Players
For Brighton & Hove Albion, Danny Welbeck (10 season goals, 0 assists), Diego GĆ³mez (5 season goals, 0 assists), and Yankuba Minteh (2 season goals, 4 assists) are expected to start. For Liverpool, Hugo EkitikĆ© (11 season goals, 4 assists), Cody Gakpo (6 season goals, 3 assists), and Dominik Szoboszlai (5 season goals, 3 assists) could make key contributions
Goalkeepers
Brighton & Hove Albion's goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen has played in 30 season matches. Liverpool's goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili has made 5 appearances this season. Brighton has recorded 7 clean sheets so far, Liverpool 9
Influences
Brighton & Hove Albion has scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded 0.94 goals in home games, indicating a home advantage. The average at The American Express Community Stadium is 1.8 goals per game. 60% of the last matches at this venue saw both teams scoring. Liverpool is possession-dominant (62% possession) and takes an average of 6.8 shots on target per game