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Premier League

Brentford - Everton

04/11/2026, 02:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Brentford
1.8
Total xG
3.1
Everton
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
BREEVE

Brentford

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.43
Rising form (2.7 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.31
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Jordan Henderson not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)

Everton

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.10
Michael Keane on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

38%

Under 3.5

62%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis favors a home win for Brentford with a 47% probability
  • Brentford demonstrates solid home defense, conceding an average of 0.94 goals per game
  • Both teams show positive offensive trends; Brentford recently scoring 2.7 goals (season average 1.7), Everton recently 1.6 goals (season average 1.3)
Risk Factors
  • Brentford has recorded four consecutive draws in their last five matches, indicating a lack of decisive wins
  • Everton shows offensive strength in recent matches, averaging 5.2 shots on target
  • The historical head-to-head record shows a slight edge for Everton with two wins compared to Brentford's one win in five direct duels
Overview

Brentford (7th place, 46 points) host Everton (8th place, 46 points) at the Gtech Community Stadium. The Premier League match is on April 11, 2026, 4:00 PM. Both teams are level on points in the upper half of the table, aiming for an improved position.

Form

Brentford's current form (WDDDD) shows 1 win and 4 draws from their last 5 games across all competitions. This includes a 0-0 draw against Leeds United and a 2-2 draw against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Everton's form (LWWLW) in their last 5 matches includes 3 wins and 2 losses. They recently defeated Chelsea 3-0 and Burnley 2-0. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Brentford averages 1.48 goals scored per game and concedes 1.35 goals per game this season. At home, they score 1.44 goals and concede 0.94 goals per game. Everton averages 1.19 goals scored per game and concedes 1.13 goals per game. Away, they score 1.23 goals and concede 1.23 goals per game. Both teams scored in 16 matches, and 15 matches ended with over 2.5 goals. Everton's figures show 13 BTTS matches and 11 Over 2.5 matches. The venue recorded an average of 2.6 goals per game, with 40% BTTS and 40% Over 2.5 in the last 5 games.

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 draws, 1 win for Brentford, and 2 wins for Everton. Brentford scored 6 goals, while Everton scored 7 goals. The last encounter on January 4, 2026, saw Brentford win 4-2 away against Everton.

Key Players

For Brentford, Igor Thiago stands out with 19 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 appearances. Mikkel Damsgaard (3 goals, 4 assists) recently contributed 2 goals and 1 assist. Kevin Schade added 7 season goals and 3 assists. For Everton, Beto is notable with 6 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 3 goals and assisting 1 in his last 5 games. James Garner provided 2 goals and 6 assists, including 2 assists in his last 5 appearances. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has 6 season goals and 3 assists. Not in squad for Brentford: Jordan Henderson (1G/3A). Not in squad for Everton: Michael Keane (3G/0A).

Goalkeepers

Brentford's goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher has kept 8 clean sheets in 30 season appearances, with 3 clean sheets in home games. Jordan Pickford, Everton's goalkeeper, recorded 11 clean sheets in 31 season appearances, 5 of which were in away games.

Influences

The Gtech Community Stadium has seen an average of 2.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches, with both teams scoring in 40% of games and 40% of games ending with over 2.5 goals. Brentford scores an average of 1.44 goals at home and concedes 0.94 goals, indicating a home advantage. Everton scores 1.23 goals away and concedes 1.23 goals per game.

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