Premier League
Arsenal - AFC Bournemouth
04/11/2026, 11:30 AM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.3
0.8
2:0
11%2:1
9%3:0
9%1:1
9%3:1
8%What influences the xG?
Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
72%
Draw
18%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
41%
Under 3.5
59%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
28%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Arsenal with a probability of 72%
- Arsenal is in significantly better form than AFC Bournemouth, who have five consecutive draws
- Arsenal's strong home offense meets AFC Bournemouth's vulnerable away defense, conceding an average of 2.07 goals
Risk Factors
- AFC Bournemouth concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game (awayGoalsConcededAvg)
- Arsenal's goal production has recently stalled (1.4 goals) compared to the season average (2.3 goals)
- Arsenal will be without Bukayo Saka (Muscle Injury) and J. Timber (Muscle Injury); M. Ødegaard and R. Calafiori are doubtful
Overview
Arsenal (1st place, 70 points) host AFC Bournemouth (13th place, 42 points) at the Emirates Stadium. Premier League match on April 11, 2026, 1:30 PM. The Gunners lead the table and aim to solidify their position
Form
Arsenal's form in the last 5 games is WDWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)
Their last victory was a 1-0 away win against Sporting CP
AFC Bournemouth's recent form is DDDDD (0 wins, 5 draws, 0 losses)
The Cherries have not won any of their last 5 matches
Statistics
Arsenal scores an average of 1.97 goals per game and concedes an average of 0.71 goals per game
At home, Arsenal scores an average of 1.94 goals and concedes an average of 0.5 goals
AFC Bournemouth scores an average of 1.48 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.55 goals per game
Away from home, AFC Bournemouth concedes an average of 2.07 goals per game
The Emirates Stadium sees an average of 2.8 total goals per game
Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games, and 3 of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal has 3 wins and AFC Bournemouth has 2 wins
The goal difference is 11:6 in favor of Arsenal
The last encounter on January 3, 2026, ended 3:2 for Arsenal
Arsenal has been dominant in recent matchups
Key Players
For Arsenal, Viktor Gyökeres (11 goals, 0 assists), Declan Rice (4 goals, 5 assists), and Gabriel Magalhães (3 goals, 4 assists) are key players
Viktor Gyökeres scored 1 goal in the last 5 games
Declan Rice scored 1 goal in the last 5 games and shows a stable form trend
For AFC Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi (9 goals, 0 assists), Evanilson (6 goals, 0 assists), and Marcus Tavernier (5 goals, 4 assists) stand out
Eli Kroupi scored 1 goal in the last 5 games with stable form
Evanilson scored 1 goal in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Arsenal's goalkeeper is David Raya, who has achieved 15 clean sheets this season
AFC Bournemouth relies on Djordje Petrovic, who has 9 clean sheets this season
David Raya shows a rising form trend with a 0.58 rating improvement
Djordje Petrovic also has a rising form trend with a 0.20 rating improvement
Influences
Arsenal's home strength is evident with an average of 1.94 home goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded per home game
The Emirates Stadium has a statistic of an average of 2.8 total goals per game
At the Emirates Stadium, 3 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals