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Premier League

Manchester United - Leeds United

04/13/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Manchester United
2.6
Total xG
3.9
Leeds United
1.3
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

8%

3:0

6%

2:2

6%

4:1

5%
What influences the xG?
MULU

Manchester United

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+1.49
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.01
Bryan Mbeumo on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists)
Diogo Dalot on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Harry Maguire not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Kobbie Mainoo not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

Leeds United

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.44
Attack strength (1.39x league average)
+0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Lukas Nmecha on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Anton Stach not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Joe Rodon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

19%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

91%

Under 1.5

9%

Over 2.5

75%

Under 2.5

25%

Over 3.5

55%

Under 3.5

45%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

35%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

68%

No

32%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical Prediction: The pipeline analysis assigns Manchester United a win probability of 65%
  • Offensive Strength vs. Defensive Vulnerability: Manchester United's home goal average of 1.76 meets Leeds United's away goals conceded average of 2.15
  • Current Form and Tactics: Manchester United's form WWLWD and an average of 6 shots on target in the last 5 games underscore their offensive approach
Risk Factors
  • Guest Defensive Vulnerability: Leeds United concedes an average of 2.15 goals per away game
  • Historical Head-to-Head: The only direct duel between Manchester United and Leeds United ended in a 1-1 draw
  • High-scoring encounter possible: The mathematical analysis predicts a 68% probability that both teams will score
Overview

Manchester United (3rd place, 55 points) host Leeds United (15th place, 33 points) at Old Trafford

Premier League match on April 13, 2026, 8:00 PM

Manchester United are fighting for a Champions League spot, while Leeds United are trying to stay clear of the relegation zone

Form

Manchester United's form in the last 5 games across all competitions is WWLWD (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw away against AFC Bournemouth

Leeds United's form in the last 5 games across all competitions is LWDDD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)

Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw away against West Ham United

Explanation: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Manchester United have scored an average of 1.81 goals and conceded 1.39 goals per game this season

At Old Trafford, their home goal average is 1.76 goals, while conceding an average of 1.0 goals

Leeds United have scored an average of 1.19 goals and conceded 1.55 goals per game this season

Away from home, their goal average is 1.15 goals, and they have conceded an average of 2.15 goals

Manchester United scores consistently (~1.8 goals per game)

Leeds United is currently scoring more frequently (1.7) than their season average (1.5)

At Old Trafford, an average of 3.2 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams so far

This match ended in a draw

The goal difference stands at 1:1 goals

The last encounter on January 4, 2026, ended 1-1

The recent record is even

Key Players

For Manchester United, Bruno Fernandes (8 goals, 16 assists, Avg. 7.76 rating) with rising form and Benjamin Sesko (9 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.79 rating) with 3 goals in the last 5 games are important

Matheus Cunha (7 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.11 rating) is another key player

Not nominated: Bryan Mbeumo (9G/3A), Diogo Dalot (1G/3A), Harry Maguire (1G/1A), Kobbie Mainoo (0G/2A)

For Leeds United, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (10 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.89 rating) and Noah Okafor (4 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.69 rating) with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games are notable

Ao Tanaka (2 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.73 rating) is also relevant with rising form

Not nominated: Lukas Nmecha (6G/1A), Anton Stach (4G/3A), Joe Rodon (2G/0A)

Goalkeepers

Manchester United's goalkeeper Senne Lammens has played in 4 of the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.60

Manchester United has recorded 5 clean sheets this season, with 4 in home games

Leeds United's goalkeeper Karl Darlow has played in 3 of the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.84

Leeds United has recorded 6 clean sheets this season, with 2 in away games

Influences

Manchester United shows a good home record with an average of 1.76 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded

At Old Trafford, the last 5 matches averaged 3.2 total goals per game

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% and over 2.5 goals is 60% in the last 5 home matches

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