Premier League
Nottingham Forest - Aston Villa
04/12/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.3
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
10%1:0
10%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
32%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Form advantage: Aston Villa in good form with 3 consecutive wins, while Nottingham Forest's form is mixed
- Offensive strength: Aston Villa is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.6)
- Head-to-head: Aston Villa won 3 of the last 5 encounters, the last one on January 3, 2026, with a 3-1 score
Risk Factors
- Fatigue: Nottingham Forest had only 3 days since their last match
- Fatigue: Aston Villa had only 3 days since their last match
- Low shots on target: Aston Villa averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Low-scoring matches: The City Ground is known for low-scoring matches with an average of 1.0 total goals per game
Overview
Nottingham Forest (16th place, 32 points) host Aston Villa (4th place, 54 points) at The City Ground
Premier League match on April 12, 2026, 2:00 PM
Forest is fighting to stay in the league, while Aston Villa is competing for a Champions League spot
Form
Nottingham Forest's form across all competitions: L D W W D
In their last 5 matches, Forest recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The last match ended in a draw
Aston Villa's form across all competitions: W L W W W
Aston Villa achieved 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches
The team has a streak of 3 consecutive wins
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Nottingham Forest averages 1.0 goals scored per game and concedes 1.39 goals
At home, Forest scores 1.0 goals and concedes 1.46 goals per game
Aston Villa averages 1.35 goals scored per game and concedes 1.19 goals
Away from home, Villa scores 1.36 goals and concedes 1.57 goals per game
Nottingham Forest kept 8 clean sheets this season, with 4 at home
Aston Villa achieved 9 clean sheets, with 3 away
At The City Ground, the average is 1.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 1 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Nottingham Forest won 2 and Aston Villa won 3
There have been no draws between the teams
Nottingham Forest scored 8 goals, Aston Villa scored 10 goals
The last encounter on January 3, 2026, was won by Aston Villa away with a 3-1 score
Aston Villa has been more dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
For Nottingham Forest, Morgan Gibbs-White (9 goals, 2 assists), Callum Hudson-Odoi (3 goals, 3 assists) and Elliot Anderson (2 goals, 2 assists, avg rating 7.26) stand out
Morgan Gibbs-White is in stable form with 1 goal in the last 5 games
Callum Hudson-Odoi showed stable form, assisting 2 goals in his last 5 games
Elliot Anderson maintains his form with an average rating of 7.18 in the last 5 games
For Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins (9 goals, 1 assist), Morgan Rogers (8 goals, 5 assists) and John McGinn (4 goals, 2 assists) are key players
Ollie Watkins is in rising form with 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games
Morgan Rogers shows stable form
John McGinn is in stable form with 2 goals in his last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Nottingham Forest's goalkeeper, Matz Sels, played in 24 games and the team recorded 8 clean sheets
Emiliano MartĂnez is Aston Villa's goalkeeper, he played in 27 games and the team achieved 9 clean sheets
Influences
Nottingham Forest shows a balanced goal difference at home with 1.0 goals scored and 1.46 goals conceded
Aston Villa scores 1.36 goals and concedes 1.57 goals per away game
The City Ground is known for low-scoring matches, with an average of 1.0 goals per game
In 20% of the last matches at The City Ground, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored