Premier League
Crystal Palace - Newcastle United
04/12/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
3.0
1.2
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
26%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Crystal Palace's strong current form with 3 wins and 2 draws, supported by a positive trend in Advanced Stats
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 49% probability and 1.77 expected home goals
- Newcastle United's struggling form with 3 losses in the last 5 games and a negative trend in Advanced Stats
Risk Factors
- Crystal Palace has only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Selhurst Park shows a tendency for low-scoring games with an average of 1.2 goals per game and 0% BTTS
- Newcastle United holds historical dominance with 3 wins in 5 direct encounters and a goal difference of 12:3
Overview
Crystal Palace (14th place, 39 points) host Newcastle United (13th place, 42 points) at Selhurst Park
Premier League match on April 12, 2026, 2:00 PM
Both teams are in the mid-table, with Newcastle slightly ahead of Crystal Palace
Form
Crystal Palace's form across all competitions is WDDWW
This equates to 3 wins and 2 draws, with no losses in the last five games
Crystal Palace's last two results were wins
Newcastle United's form across all competitions is LDWLL
This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in the last five games
Newcastle United's last two results were losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Crystal Palace scores an average of 1.1 goals per game and concedes 1.17 goals
The team has kept 11 clean sheets
In home games, Crystal Palace averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded
Newcastle United averages 1.42 goals per game and concedes 1.45 goals
They have kept a clean sheet in 8 games
Away from home, Newcastle United averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded
At Selhurst Park, an average of 1.2 total goals are scored per game
Both teams scored in 0 out of 5 games, and only 1 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Newcastle United leads with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Crystal Palace and 1 draw
Newcastle United scored a total of 12 goals, while Crystal Palace managed 3 goals
Newcastle United won the last encounter 2-0 on January 4, 2026
Newcastle United has been dominant in recent direct confrontations
Key Players
For Crystal Palace, Daniel Muñoz (3 goals, 2 assists, Avg 7.01) and Jørgen Strand Larsen (3 goals, 0 assists, Avg 6.97) are important offensive players
Yéremy Pino contributes with 2 goals and 1 assist (Avg 6.87)
Not nominated: Ismaïla Sarr (7G/1A), Adam Wharton (0G/5A), Evann Guessand (1G/1A)
For Newcastle United, Anthony Gordon stands out with 6 goals and 2 assists (Avg 6.94), scoring 2 goals in the last 5 games
Malick Thiaw (4 goals, 0 assists, Avg 6.99) is an important defender
Jacob Murphy contributed 3 goals and 1 assist (Avg 6.81) and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games
Not nominated: Nick Woltemade (7G/3A), Harvey Barnes (5G/0A), Jacob Ramsey (2G/1A), Dan Burn (0G/2A)
Goalkeepers
Crystal Palace's goalkeeper Dean Henderson recorded 11 clean sheets in 29 appearances
For Newcastle United, Aaron Ramsdale was between the posts in 10 games and achieved 8 clean sheets
Influences
Selhurst Park proves to be a strong home ground with a tendency for low-scoring games
An average of 1.2 goals are scored here per game
Both teams scored in only 0 out of 5 games
Only 1 out of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals