Premier League
Chelsea - Manchester City
04/12/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.7
1.6
2:1
9%2:2
7%1:2
7%3:1
6%3:2
5%What influences the xG?
Chelsea
Manchester City
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
23%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Under 1.5
11%
Over 2.5
71%
Under 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
50%
Under 3.5
50%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
71%
No
29%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 48% for Chelsea
- Manchester City dominated the last 5 head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws, scoring 8 goals and conceding 3
- Chelsea's goal production has recently dropped to 1.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 2.1 goals, accompanied by a negative form trend
Risk Factors
- Chelsea's defense has recently conceded an average of 2.4 goals per game, significantly higher than their season average of 1.37 goals conceded
- Manchester City's defense recently conceded 1.4 goals per game, which is above their season average of 1.02 goals conceded
- Both teams, Chelsea and Manchester City, currently show a negative form trend
Overview
Chelsea (6th place, 48 points) host Manchester City (2nd place, 61 points) at Stamford Bridge
Premier League match on April 12, 2026, 5:30 PM
Chelsea are fighting for European spots, while Manchester City are in the title race at the top of the league
Form
Chelsea's current form in all competitions is LLLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Their last game was a clear 7-0 victory against Port Vale
Prior to that, Chelsea suffered four consecutive defeats
Manchester City's form is WLDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The Citizens won their last game 4-0 against Liverpool
Chelsea shows a negative form trend in goal production, which has decreased from a season average of 2.1 goals to 1.8 goals recently
Manchester City's goal production has also recently decreased from a season average of 2.2 goals to 1.8 goals, indicating a negative form trend
Statistics
Chelsea averages 1.71 goals scored per game and concedes 1.23 goals per game this season
At home, they average 1.77 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded
Manchester City averages 2.00 goals scored per game and concedes 0.93 goals per game
Away from home, they average 2.00 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded
Stamford Bridge has seen an average of 3.4 goals per game in 5 matches
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 0 home wins for Chelsea, 3 away wins for Manchester City, and 2 draws
The goal difference is 3:8 in favor of Manchester City
The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on January 4, 2026
Manchester City proved to be the more dominant team in recent direct encounters
Key Players
Chelsea's key players include João Pedro with 14 season goals and 5 assists, Cole Palmer with 9 goals and 1 assist, and Moisés Caicedo
Their ratings are 7.15, 7.08, and 7.12 respectively
João Pedro, Cole Palmer, and Pedro Neto show a declining form trend
Enzo Fernández (8 goals, 3 assists) and Trevoh Chalobah (3 goals, 0 assists) are not nominated, leaving Chelsea with 90% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available
For Manchester City, Erling Haaland stands out with 22 goals and 7 assists, showing stable form with 4 goals in the last 5 games
Rayan Cherki has 3 goals and 8 assists, while Antoine Semenyo contributed 5 goals and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
Chelsea's goalkeeper Robert Sánchez has made 29 season appearances and kept 9 clean sheets
For Manchester City, Gianluigi Donnarumma has been in goal for 27 games and achieved 12 clean sheets
Influences
Stamford Bridge has seen an average of 3.4 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 40% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 60%
Chelsea averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.31 goals conceded at home
Manchester City averages 2.00 goals scored and 1.42 goals conceded away from home
The players will play on grass