Premier League
Liverpool - Fulham
04/11/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.2
1.5
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Liverpool
Fulham
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
26%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Liverpool with 42%
- Liverpool's solid home defense (Avg. 1.0 goals conceded) faces Fulham's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 2.08 goals conceded)
- Liverpool has maintained the upper hand in recent head-to-head matches and was more dominant lately
Risk Factors
- Liverpool had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Liverpool's goal production is stagnant with 1.2 goals recently compared to the season average of 1.9 goals
- Fulham's goal production is stagnant with 1.3 goals recently compared to the season average of 1.5 goals
Overview
Liverpool (5th place, 49 points) host Fulham (9th place, 44 points) at Anfield
The Premier League match takes place on April 11, 2026, 5:30 PM
Liverpool is fighting for European spots, while Fulham aims to hold its position in the middle of the table
Form
The home team Liverpool showed a form of DWLLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five games
This corresponds to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with the last 3 games being lost
Fulham has a form of WLLDW in their last five matches, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The last game was won, following a draw
Statistics
Liverpool scored an average of 1.61 goals per game and conceded 1.35 goals this season
At home, the average is 1.59 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded
Fulham scored an average of 1.39 goals per game and conceded 1.42 goals
Away, Fulham scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded 2.08 goals
In Liverpool's home games, over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 cases, and both teams scored in 3 out of 5 cases
Anfield averages 3.8 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Liverpool, 1 win for Fulham, and 2 draws
Liverpool scored 13 goals and Fulham scored 11 goals
The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on January 4, 2026
The home team (Liverpool) has been more dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
For Liverpool, Mohamed Salah (5 goals, 6 assists), Cody Gakpo (6 goals, 3 assists), and Florian Wirtz (2 goals, 2 assists in the last 5 games, rising form) are important players
For Fulham, Harry Wilson (10 goals, 6 assists, rising form), Alex Iwobi (4 goals, 3 assists), and Josh King (1 goal, 1 assist in the last 5 games, rising form) stand out
Goalkeepers
Liverpool's goalkeeper is Giorgi Mamardashvili
The home team has achieved 4 clean sheets in home games this season
Fulham's goalkeeper Bernd Leno and his team have recorded 2 clean sheets in away games this season
Influences
Liverpool benefits from the home advantage at Anfield, where they score an average of 1.59 goals and concede only 1.0 goals
Anfield's venue statistics show a high average of 3.8 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of the last 5 games and 80% ending with over 2.5 goals