Premier League
Burnley - Brighton & Hove Albion
04/11/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.9
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%0:2
7%2:1
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Burnley
Brighton & Hove Albion
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
27%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Brighton has a significantly higher win probability at 45%
- Form advantage: Brighton is in top form with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Burnley is winless
- Tactical difference: Brighton's offensive approach with an average of 5.6 shots on target per game contrasts with Burnley's 3.2 shots on target
Risk Factors
- Burnley averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 matches, indicating lower offensive penetration
- Burnley has several key players sidelined, including J. Laurent (Red Card Suspension) and J. Cullen (Cruciate Ligament Injury)
- Brighton will be without important defender L. Dunk (Yellow Card Suspension)
Overview
Burnley (19th place, 20 points) host Brighton & Hove Albion (10th place, 43 points) at Turf Moor
Premier League match on April 11, 2026, 3:00 PM
Burnley is fighting against relegation, while Brighton aims for a spot in the upper mid-table
Form
Burnley shows poor form with DLLDL in their last five matches
They recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses during this period
Their last encounter ended in a loss
Brighton & Hove Albion is in better form with WWLWW
They won 4 of their last 5 matches and lost only once
Their last two matches were wins
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Burnley averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.97 goals conceded per game this season
At home, they score 1.07 goals and concede 1.64 goals per home game
They kept 4 clean sheets in total
Brighton & Hove Albion averages 1.32 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per game
Away from home, they score 1.31 goals and concede 1.54 goals per away game
They achieved 7 clean sheets this season
At Turf Moor, an average of 3.2 goals per game were scored in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were recorded in 3 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, Brighton & Hove Albion has 1 win and there have been 2 draws
Burnley has not won any of these direct encounters so far
Brighton has scored a total of 4 goals, Burnley 2 goals
The last encounter on January 3, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for Brighton
Key Players
For Burnley, Zian Flemming stands out with 8 goals and 1 assist this season, holding an average rating of 6.85
Jaidon Anthony contributed 7 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.87
Lesley Ugochukwu scored 3 goals and 1 assist with a rating of 6.64
For Brighton, Danny Welbeck is the key scorer with 12 goals and 0 assists this season and a rating of 6.83
Yankuba Minteh has 2 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 6.91
Diego Gómez scored 5 goals and 1 assist, with a rating of 6.83
Goalkeepers
Burnley's goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka has made 31 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.86
Burnley kept 4 clean sheets
Brighton's goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen has played in 31 matches and holds an average rating of 6.85
Brighton achieved 7 clean sheets
Influences
Burnley plays at Turf Moor, where an average of 3.2 goals were scored in the last 5 matches
The home team scored an average of 1.07 goals and conceded 1.64 goals per home game this season
The grass pitch at Turf Moor provides a neutral surface for both teams