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Premier League

Brentford - Fulham

04/18/2026, 11:30 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Brentford
1.6
Total xG
3.2
Fulham
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
BREFUL

Brentford

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Rising form (2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.10
Jordan Henderson not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)

Fulham

Attack strength (1.26x league average)
+0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.20
Josh King on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Fulham with Harry Wilson: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Fulham: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Brentford with Mikkel Damsgaard: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Brentford: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 5
    Fulham: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

26%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

64%

No

36%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a very close match with similar win probabilities for both teams (home win 37%, away win 36%)
  • Brentford's offense has been more effective in recent matches (2.0 goals per game) than their season average (1.7 goals per game)
  • Fulham has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches and dominated recent encounters
Risk Factors
  • Fulham concedes an average of 2.25 goals per away game
  • Fulham's goal production has dropped to an average of 0.75 goals in recent games, compared to a season average of 1.41 goals
Overview

Brentford (7th place, 47 points) host Fulham (12th place, 44 points) at the Gtech Community Stadium

The Premier League match takes place on April 18, 2026, 12:30 PM

Both teams are fighting for important points in the upper half of the table

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Brentford is on a run of 5 draws (DDDDD) in all competitions

The home team recorded 0 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses in their last five matches

Fulham shows a form of 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses (LLDWL) in their last five games

The last match ended in a loss for Fulham

Statistics

Brentford scored an average of 1.50 goals per game this season and conceded 1.38 goals

Fulham averaged 1.34 goals per game and conceded 1.44 goals

At home, Brentford scores 1.47 goals and concedes 1.00 goals per game

Away, Fulham scored 1.33 goals and conceded an average of 2.25 goals per game

An average of 2.8 goals per game were scored at the Gtech Community Stadium

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches at this stadium

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there was 1 win for Brentford, 3 wins for Fulham, and 1 draw

Fulham dominated the recent encounters

The goal difference is slightly in favor of the visitors with 8:7 goals for Fulham

The last meeting on September 20, 2025, ended with a 3-1 victory for Fulham

Key Players

For Brentford, Igor Thiago stands out with 21 season goals and 1 assist, as does Kevin Schade with 7 goals and 3 assists

Dango Ouattara has contributed 5 goals and 3 assists so far

For Fulham, Harry Wilson impresses with 10 season goals and 6 assists, and Alex Iwobi with 4 goals and 3 assists

Emile Smith Rowe scored 3 season goals

Goalkeepers

Brentford's goalkeeper Caoimhín Kelleher recorded 8 clean sheets this season

Fulham's Bernd Leno achieved 6 clean sheets

Influences

Brentford has a home advantage at the Gtech Community Stadium, with an average of 1.47 goals scored and 1.00 goals conceded per home game

The stadium shows an average of 2.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches in this arena

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