Premier League
Chelsea - Manchester United
04/18/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.5
1.3
2:1
10%3:1
7%2:2
6%3:0
6%1:2
5%What influences the xG?
Chelsea
Manchester United
The Lab
- 1Manchester United: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (6 of 8 total)
- 2Manchester United: 83% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 3Chelsea with Cole Palmer: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 7.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Manchester United: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Manchester United with Manuel Ugarte: 5.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
59%
Draw
22%
Away Win
19%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
68%
Under 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
47%
Under 3.5
53%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
81%
Away or Draw
41%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Favorite Role: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Chelsea with 59% probability
- Offensive Strength: Chelsea averages 1.64 goals per home game, while Manchester United concedes 1.73 goals per away game
- Tactical Superiority: Chelsea has shown dominant possession (58%) and averaged 6.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
- Defensive absences for Manchester United: L. Martínez, H. Maguire are suspended, and M. de Ligt, P. Chinazaekpere Dorgu, and L. Yoro are also missing in defense
- Chelsea's goal deficit: Chelsea's goal production has recently decreased (averaged 1.4 goals) compared to their season average (averaged 2.1 goals)
Overview
Chelsea (6th place, 48 points) host Manchester United (3rd place, 55 points) at Stamford Bridge
Premier League match on April 18, 2026, 8:00 PM
Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the race for European qualification
Form
Chelsea's form (LLLWL) shows a weak record with only one win and four losses in the last five games
Their last match against Manchester City ended in a 0-3 defeat
Manchester United's form (WLWDL) is mixed with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games
Manchester United recently lost 1-2 to Leeds United
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Chelsea scored an average of 1.66 goals per game this season and conceded 1.28 goals
Manchester United scored an average of 1.78 goals per game and conceded 1.41 goals
In home games, Chelsea scored 1.64 goals and conceded 1.43 goals
Manchester United scored 1.73 goals away and conceded 1.73 goals as well
Stamford Bridge has seen an average of 3.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in only 1 out of 5 games, while over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, there has been an even record with two wins each for Chelsea and Manchester United, and one draw
The goal difference stands at 8:8 goals
The last encounter on September 20, 2025, was won by Manchester United with a score of 2-1
Key Players
For Chelsea, Enzo Fernández (8 goals, 3 assists) with stable form, Cole Palmer (9 goals, 1 assist) and Pedro Neto (5 goals, 4 assists) are the players with the highest goal threat
For Manchester United, Bruno Fernandes stands out with 8 goals and 17 assists, including 1 goal and 5 assists in the last five games
Benjamin Sesko scored 9 goals and 1 assist, with 2 goals in the last five games
Casemiro contributed 8 goals and 2 assists, including 2 goals in the last five games
Goalkeepers
Chelsea's goalkeeper Robert Sánchez recorded 9 clean sheets in 30 season appearances
Manchester United's goalkeeper Senne Lammens achieved 5 clean sheets in 26 season appearances
Influences
Chelsea's home advantage is reflected in 1.64 goals scored per home game
Manchester United conceded an average of 1.73 goals per away game
Stamford Bridge averages 3.2 goals per game