Premier League
Manchester City - Arsenal
04/19/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.0
1.3
1:1
12%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Manchester City
Arsenal
The Lab
- 1Manchester City with Savinho: 5.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Arsenal: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Manchester City: 47% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (7 of 15)
- 4Arsenal with David Raya: 1.2 goals/90 min. Without: 3 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Manchester City: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
27%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
58%
Under 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Manchester City is favored for a home win with a 45% probability
- Form Gap: Both teams show a 'Negative' form trend in goal production according to Advanced Stats
- Home Strength vs. History: Manchester City's strong home record meets Arsenal's historical dominance in head-to-head matches
Risk Factors
- Arsenal had a short break of only 4 days since their last match
- Arsenal's Absentees: Viktor Gyökeres (12 goals/0 assists) and Gabriel Martinelli (1 goal/3 assists) are not in the starting lineup
Overview
Manchester City (2nd place, 64 points) host league leaders Arsenal (1st place, 70 points) at the Etihad Stadium
Premier League match on April 19, 2026, 5:30 PM
This top match is crucial in the title race
Form
Manchester City's form across all competitions: L-D-L-W-W
The Skyblues won their last two matches
Overall, Manchester City recently recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Arsenal's form across all competitions: W-L-W-L-D
The Gunners drew their last match
Arsenal also shows a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Manchester City scored an average of 2.03 goals per game this season and conceded 0.9 goals per match
The Skyblues kept a clean sheet in 13 matches
At home, they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.61 goals conceded per game
Arsenal averages 1.94 goals per game and 0.75 goals conceded per match
The Gunners achieved 15 clean sheets this season
Away, Arsenal scores an average of 2.0 goals and concedes 1.0 goals per game
In the Etihad Stadium, an average of 3.2 goals were scored in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches between Manchester City and Arsenal, Manchester City has 0 wins, Arsenal has 2 wins, and there have been 3 draws
The goal difference is 4:9 in favor of Arsenal
The last encounter on September 21, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
Historically, Arsenal has recently dominated this fixture
Key Players
For Manchester City, Erling Haaland with 22 goals and 7 assists, and Rayan Cherki with 3 goals and 10 assists are crucial
Nico O'Reilly contributed with 5 goals and 3 assists
For Arsenal, Declan Rice with 4 goals and 5 assists, and Eberechi Eze with 6 goals and 2 assists stand out
Martin Ødegaard contributed 1 goal and 5 assists
Goalkeepers
Manchester City's goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma recorded 13 clean sheets this season, 7 of which were in home games
Arsenal's goalkeeper David Raya achieved 15 clean sheets this season, 7 of which were in away games
Influences
Manchester City benefits from home advantage at the Etihad Stadium, where they average 2.0 goals scored and only 0.61 goals conceded
The stadium showed an average of 3.2 goals per game in the last 5 matches