Premier League
Nottingham Forest - Burnley
04/19/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.8
0.9
1:1
12%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
The Lab
- 1Nottingham Forest with Ryan Yates : 3.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Burnley with Jacob Bruun Larsen: 3.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Burnley: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
25%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 58% probability
- Nottingham Forest is unbeaten in 5 games (3 wins, 2 draws), while Burnley lost 4 of their last 5 matches
- Burnley concedes an average of 2.24 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Nottingham Forest had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Burnley's offense averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Burnley concedes an average of 2.24 goals per away game
Overview
Nottingham Forest (16th place, 33 points) hosts Burnley (19th place, 20 points) at The City Ground
Premier League match on April 19, 2026, 2:00 PM
The hosts aim to move away from the relegation zone, while the visitors desperately need points in the fight for survival
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Nottingham Forest shows strong form with WWDDW in their last five matches across all competitions
This includes 3 wins and 2 draws, with no losses
Their last result was a 1-0 win against Porto
Burnley, on the other hand, is going through a difficult period with LLDLL in their last five games
The team recorded 4 losses and 1 draw during this period, with no wins
Their last match ended in a 0-2 loss against Brighton & Hove Albion
Statistics
Nottingham Forest scored an average of 1.00 goals per game and conceded 1.38 goals per game this season
At home, the team scores an average of 1.00 goals and concedes 1.43 goals
Burnley scored an average of 1.03 goals per game and conceded 1.97 goals per game
Away, their goal average is 1.06 goals scored and 2.24 goals conceded
Nottingham Forest kept 8 clean sheets this season, Burnley 4 clean sheets
In the last 5 games at The City Ground, an average of 1.4 goals were scored per match
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, Nottingham Forest has 1 win and there have been 2 draws
Burnley has not managed to win any of the direct encounters so far
Nottingham Forest scored 4 goals in these meetings, while Burnley scored 3 goals
The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on September 20, 2025
Key Players
Morgan Gibbs-White is a key player for Nottingham Forest with 9 goals and 2 assists in 32 season appearances
Neco Williams contributed 2 goals and 3 assists in 31 games
Omari Hutchinson added 1 goal and 3 assists in 25 matches
For Burnley, Zian Flemming is important with 8 goals and 1 assist in 23 season appearances
Jaidon Anthony scored 7 goals and 1 assist in 31 games
Lesley Ugochukwu recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in 31 appearances
Goalkeepers
Nottingham Forest's goalkeeper is Matz Sels, who played in 25 games
Nottingham Forest achieved a total of 8 clean sheets this season
Burnley's goalkeeper Martin Dúbravka was between the posts in 32 games
Burnley kept a total of 4 clean sheets this season
Influences
Nottingham Forest shows an average home performance of 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 goals conceded per game
Burnley concedes an average of 2.24 goals per away game
The grass pitch at The City Ground is the usual surface for both teams
The last five games at The City Ground had an average of 1.4 goals per game