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Premier League

Newcastle United - AFC Bournemouth

04/18/2026, 02:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Newcastle United
2.3
Total xG
4.3
AFC Bournemouth
1.9
Most Likely Scores

2:1

7%

2:2

7%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%

3:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NUAB

Newcastle United

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.20
Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.17
Anthony Gordon not in squad (6 goals, 2 assists)
Joelinton not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
Dan Burn on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

AFC Bournemouth

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.62
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.25
Full strength squad available
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Newcastle United: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    AFC Bournemouth: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    AFC Bournemouth: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Newcastle United with Kieran Trippier: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Newcastle United: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

21%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

93%

Under 1.5

7%

Over 2.5

80%

Under 2.5

20%

Over 3.5

62%

Under 3.5

38%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

78%

No

22%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis favors a home win for Newcastle United with a 47% probability
  • AFC Bournemouth shows more stable form with 1 win and 4 draws in the last 5 games, while Newcastle United has a negative form trend (3 consecutive losses)
  • AFC Bournemouth is dominant in the last 5 direct encounters with 1 win and 4 draws
Risk Factors
  • AFC Bournemouth concedes an average of 1.88 goals per away game, indicating defensive vulnerability
  • Newcastle United's goal production recently dropped to an average of 1.2 goals, while goals conceded increased to an average of 2.4
Overview

Newcastle United (14th place, 42 points) host AFC Bournemouth (11th place, 45 points) at St. James' Park. The Premier League match takes place on April 18, 2026, 4:00 PM. Both teams are aiming to finish the season in the upper half of the table and secure important points

Form

Newcastle United's form in the last 5 games is DWLLL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses). There have been 3 consecutive losses recently. Their current form is rated as negative

AFC Bournemouth's form in the last 5 games is DDDDW (1 win, 4 draws, 0 losses). They recently secured a win

AFC Bournemouth's form is stable

Statistics

Newcastle United averages 1.41 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 1.38 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded per home game

In 21 games, both teams scored (BTTS) and 21 games ended with over 2.5 goals

AFC Bournemouth averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game

Away from home, they average 1.47 goals scored and 1.88 goals conceded per away game

For AFC Bournemouth, both teams scored in 21 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 18 matches

St. James' Park has seen an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches

In all 5 of these games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, there have been 0 wins for Newcastle United, 1 win for AFC Bournemouth, and 4 draws

Newcastle United scored 7 goals in these matches, while AFC Bournemouth scored 10 goals

The last encounter on January 10, 2026, ended in a 3:3 draw

AFC Bournemouth has been the more dominant team in recent head-to-head matches

Key Players

For Newcastle United, Harvey Barnes with 5 season goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games, William Osula with 3 season goals and 1 goal in the last 5 games, and Anthony Elanga with 2 goals in the last 5 games are important players

For AFC Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi with 10 season goals and 2 goals in the last 5 games, Evanilson with 6 season goals, 1 season assist, and 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games, and Marcus Tavernier with 5 season goals and 4 season assists are notable

Goalkeepers

Aaron Ramsdale, Newcastle United's goalkeeper, kept 8 clean sheets this season

Djordje Petrovic, AFC Bournemouth's goalkeeper, recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Influences

Newcastle United enjoys home advantage at St. James' Park, where they scored 29 goals and conceded 26 goals in 21 home games

AFC Bournemouth concedes an average of 1.88 goals per away game, which could indicate vulnerability

The last 5 games at St. James' Park show a high goal rate of 3.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 100% of these games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80%

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