Premier League
Everton - Liverpool
04/19/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.6
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
5%What influences the xG?
Everton
Liverpool
The Lab
- 1Liverpool with Rio Ngumoha: 3 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Everton with Dwight McNeil: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 3Everton: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Liverpool: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
29%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Form and Attack: Everton's positive form and rising goal production (currently 2.0 goals/game) contrast with Liverpool's negative form and goal drought (currently 0.6 goals/game)
- Head-to-Head Dominance: Liverpool has won 3 of the last 5 direct encounters, including the most recent match
- Prediction Balance: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win at 39%, a draw at 29%, and an away win at 31%, indicating a closely contested match
Risk Factors
- Liverpool's defense is vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 1.79 goals per away game
- The pipeline predictions are very balanced, with 39% for a home win, 29% for a draw, and 31% for an away win, highlighting the high uncertainty of the match outcome
Overview
Everton (10th place, 47 points) hosts Liverpool (5th place, 52 points) at Hill Dickinson Stadium
Premier League match on April 19, 2026, 3:00 PM
A crucial derby, with Liverpool battling for European spots and Everton aiming to consolidate their position in the upper half of the table
Form
Everton shows solid form with 'WWLWD' in their last five matches
This includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Most recently, Everton drew 2-2 against Brentford and defeated Chelsea 3-0
Liverpool is in a difficult phase with 'LLLWL' in their last five games
This represents 1 win and 4 losses
Recent results include a 0-2 loss against Paris Saint Germain and a 2-0 win against Fulham
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Everton averages 1.24 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded at home per game
Liverpool averages 1.64 goals scored and 1.79 goals conceded away per game
Everton has kept 11 clean sheets this season, while Liverpool has 10 clean sheets
The Hill Dickinson Stadium sees an average of 2.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in only 1 of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Everton secured 1 win, Liverpool 3 wins, and there was 1 draw
Liverpool scored 7 goals in these encounters, while Everton managed 5 goals
The last match was won by Liverpool away with a score of 2-1 on September 20, 2025
Liverpool has been the dominant side in recent direct encounters
Key Players
For Everton, Beto (7 goals, 1 assist) with rising form, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (7 goals, 3 assists) with stable form, and Iliman Ndiaye (6 goals, 3 assists) with stable form are key
For Liverpool, Mohamed Salah (6 goals, 6 assists) with stable form, Cody Gakpo (6 goals, 4 assists) with declining form, and Dominik Szoboszlai (5 goals, 3 assists) with declining form are notable
Goalkeepers
Everton's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has recorded 11 clean sheets this season
Liverpool's goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili has appeared 7 times this season, and his team has kept a total of 10 clean sheets
Influences
Everton scores an average of 1.24 goals at home and concedes 1.12 goals, indicating solid home performance
The Hill Dickinson Stadium records an average of 2.0 goals per game
Only 20% of recent matches at Hill Dickinson Stadium saw both teams score, and only 40% of matches ended with over 2.5 goals