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Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur - Brighton & Hove Albion

04/18/2026, 04:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Tottenham Hotspur
1.2
Total xG
2.9
Brighton & Hove Albion
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

8%

2:1

6%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
THB&HA

Tottenham Hotspur

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 9, 9 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.5 season average)
-0.10
Richarlison on the bench (9 goals, 4 assists)
Cristian Romero  not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Pape Matar Sarr not in squad (2 goals, 3 assists)
Archie Gray on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Mathys Tel on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 58% available)

Brighton & Hove Albion

Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 18, 9 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.00
James Milner not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Brighton & Hove Albion: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 2
    Tottenham Hotspur: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Tottenham Hotspur with Djed Spence: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Brighton & Hove Albion with Yasin Ayari: 3.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

24%

Draw

26%

Away Win

50%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

76%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis favors Brighton with a 50% away win probability
  • Current form: Brighton is in good shape with 4 wins from their last 5 games, while Tottenham suffered 3 losses
  • Head-to-head: Brighton has been more dominant in the last 5 encounters with 3 wins compared to Tottenham's 1
Risk Factors
  • Limited squad strength: Only 59% of Tottenham Hotspur's usual starting eleven goal threat is available
  • Home defensive weakness: Tottenham Hotspur concedes an average of 2.00 goals per home game
  • Key player suspended: Brighton & Hove Albion is missing L. Dunk (Yellow Card Suspension)
Overview

Tottenham Hotspur (18th place, 30 points) host Brighton & Hove Albion (9th place, 46 points) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Premier League match on April 18, 2026, 5:30 PM

Tottenham is in a relegation battle, while Brighton competes for European spots

Form

Tottenham Hotspur's form across all competitions: LDWLL

This means 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in the last 5 games

The last two results were losses

Brighton & Hove Albion's form across all competitions: WLWWW

This means 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games

Brighton won their last 3 consecutive matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Tottenham Hotspur averages 1.29 home goals scored and 2.00 home goals conceded per game

Brighton & Hove Albion averages 1.36 away goals scored and 1.43 away goals conceded per game

Tottenham kept 2 clean sheets at home, Brighton kept 5 clean sheets away

Overall, Tottenham Hotspur's matches saw 'both teams scored' 19 times and 'over 2.5 goals' 21 times

Brighton & Hove Albion's matches saw 'both teams scored' 19 times and 'over 2.5 goals' 14 times

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Tottenham Hotspur won 1, Brighton & Hove Albion won 3, and 1 match ended in a draw

Tottenham scored 9 goals, Brighton scored 14 goals in these encounters

The last match on September 20, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

Brighton & Hove Albion has been more dominant in recent head-to-head clashes

Key Players

For Tottenham Hotspur, Xavi Simons is an important midfielder with rising form (delta 0.53) and 2 goals in 4 games

Randal Kolo Muani contributed 1 goal in 4 games

Dominic Solanke had no goal contributions in 5 games but scored 3 season goals

For Brighton & Hove Albion, Danny Welbeck is the most important attacker with 3 goals in 5 games and rising form (delta 0.53)

Mats Wieffer scored 2 goals in the last 5 games and also shows rising form (delta 0.39)

Yankuba Minteh recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games

Goalkeepers

Tottenham Hotspur's goalkeeper Antonín Kinský has played in 1 season match, the team achieved 7 clean sheets overall

Brighton & Hove Albion's goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen has been in goal for 32 season matches, the team achieved 8 clean sheets overall

Bart Verbruggen shows rising form with a rating improvement of 0.37

Influences

The match will take place at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on grass surface

Historically, the last 5 matches at this stadium averaged 4.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and all 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Tottenham scores 1.29 goals per home game and concedes 2.00 goals

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