šŸ“󠁧󠁢󠁄󠁮󠁧ó æ

Premier League

Leeds United - Wolverhampton Wanderers

04/18/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Leeds United
2.0
Total xG
3.0
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
LUWW

Leeds United

Rising form (2.3 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.25
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Lukas Nmecha on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Anton Stach not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Joe Rodon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.64
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (1.4 vs 1 season average)
+0.13
Mateus ManƩ on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Wolverhampton Wanderers: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Wolverhampton Wanderers with Rodrigo Gomes: 8.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Leeds United with Joe Rodon: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Leeds United: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 5
    Wolverhampton Wanderers: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

24%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Probability: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Leeds United with 57%
  • Visitors' defensive weakness: Wolverhampton Wanderers concede an average of 3.00 goals per away match
  • Home strength and form: Leeds United is unbeaten in 5 games and shows strong offensive performance at home
Risk Factors
  • Low attacking threat from guests: Wolverhampton Wanderers averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Absent players for visitors: Y. Mosquera is suspended due to a yellow card, S. Johnstone (Shoulder Injury) is injured
  • Away offensive weakness: Wolverhampton Wanderers score only an average of 0.78 goals per away game
Overview

Leeds United (15th place, 36 points) host Wolverhampton Wanderers (20th place, 17 points) at Elland Road

The Premier League match is on April 18, 2026, 4:00 PM

Leeds United aims to distance themselves from the relegation zone, while Wolverhampton Wanderers fight for survival at the bottom of the table

Form

Leeds United are in good form with WDDDW (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) in their last five matches across all competitions

The team is unbeaten in their last five games

Most recently, they achieved a 2-1 away win against Manchester United and a 2-2 draw against West Ham United

Wolverhampton Wanderers' form shows WWLDL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

Their last match ended in a 0-4 defeat against West Ham United, following a 2-2 draw against Brentford

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Leeds United average 1.22 home goals scored and concede 1.11 home goals per game this season

Overall, they have 6 clean sheets, both teams scored in 19 matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 17 matches

Wolverhampton Wanderers average 0.78 away goals scored and concede an average of 3.00 goals per away game

They have managed 4 clean sheets this season, both teams scored in 14 matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 15 matches

Elland Road has seen an average of 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches

Both teams scored in 1 of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 of 5 games

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams so far

Leeds United won 1 game, Wolverhampton Wanderers 0, and there were 0 draws

The goal difference is 3:1 in favor of Leeds United

The last encounter was on September 20, 2025, where Leeds United won 3-1 away against Wolverhampton Wanderers

Leeds United dominated the last direct encounter

Key Players

For Leeds United, Noah Okafor, Ao Tanaka, and Gabriel Gudmundsson are in good form

Noah Okafor scored 2 goals and provided 2 assists in his last 4 games, showing a rising form trend

Ao Tanaka has scored 1 goal in 5 games, also with a rising form trend

Gabriel Gudmundsson recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games and also shows a rising form trend

For Wolverhampton Wanderers, JoĆ£o Gomes, AndrĆ©, and Adam Armstrong stand out

JoĆ£o Gomes scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games

AndrƩ scored 1 goal in 4 games and shows a rising form trend

Adam Armstrong scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 5 games

Goalkeepers

Leeds United's goalkeeper is Karl Darlow

The team has recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Daniel Bentley is in goal for Wolverhampton Wanderers

The team has managed 4 clean sheets this season

Influences

Elland Road, with a grass surface, is the home ground of Leeds United

The home advantage is reflected in 1.22 home goals scored and 1.11 home goals conceded

The venue is known for an average of 1.8 goals per game

Wolverhampton Wanderers concede an average of 3.00 goals per away match

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.