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Premier League

Aston Villa - Sunderland

04/19/2026, 01:00 PM

4 : 3
Expected Goals
Aston Villa
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Sunderland
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
AVSUN

Aston Villa

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.23
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Lucas Digne on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)

Sunderland

Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap)
-0.09
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.09
Chemsdine Talbi on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Dan Ballard on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Aston Villa: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Aston Villa: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Sunderland with Wilson Isidor: 3.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Sunderland: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Aston Villa with Matty Cash: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 45% for Aston Villa
  • Aston Villa currently scores more frequently (averaging 2.4 goals) than their season average (1.6 goals), while Sunderland's goal production is stagnant (0.8 goals)
  • Aston Villa's strong home record with an average of 1.35 home goals and 0.88 home goals conceded contrasts with Sunderland's 2.2 goals conceded per away game
Risk Factors
  • Aston Villa had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Sunderland concedes an average of 2.2 goals per away game
  • Lucas Digne is missing for Aston Villa, reducing the usual starting XI's assist share by 21%
Overview

Aston Villa (4th place, 55 points) host Sunderland (11th place, 46 points) at Villa Park

The Premier League match takes place on April 19, 2026, at 2:00 PM

Aston Villa is fighting for European spots, while Sunderland is in the mid-table

Form

Aston Villa is in strong form with WWWDW in the last five games

This corresponds to 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses

The team is unbeaten in five matches

Sunderland's form in the last five games is WLLWW, with 3 wins and 2 losses

Sunderland's goal production is currently stagnant (averaging 0.8 goals) compared to their season average (1.1 goals)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Aston Villa scores an average of 1.35 goals at home and concedes 0.88 goals per game

Sunderland, on the other hand, concedes an average of 2.2 goals away, while scoring 1.0 goal per away game

At Villa Park, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored in the last five matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

There has only been one head-to-head match between Aston Villa and Sunderland so far

This match ended in a 1-1 draw

The last encounter was on September 21, 2025

The head-to-head record is even

Key Players

For Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins is a key player with 9 season goals and 1 assist in 31 appearances

Watkins recently scored 4 goals and 1 assist in 5 games and shows a rising form trend

Ezri Konsa scored 2 goals in 4 of the last 5 games in 30 season appearances

Amadou Onana recorded 2 season goals in 23 appearances and 1 goal in 4 of the last 5 games

For Sunderland, Enzo Le FĂ©e stands out with 4 season goals and 4 assists in 30 appearances

Brian Brobbey scored 6 season goals and 1 assist in 25 appearances, including 1 goal in 4 of the last 5 games

Granit Xhaka provided 1 season goal and 5 assists in 28 appearances, with 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Emiliano MartĂ­nez is the goalkeeper for Aston Villa and recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Robin Roefs guards the goal for Sunderland, his team achieved 10 clean sheets this season

Influences

The pitch at Villa Park is grass

At Villa Park, an average of 3.0 goals per game were scored in the last five matches

Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games

Aston Villa scores an average of 1.35 goals at home and concedes 0.88 goals

Sunderland concedes an average of 2.2 goals away

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