Premier League
Arsenal - Newcastle United
04/25/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.2
0.9
2:0
11%2:1
10%1:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%What influences the xG?
Arsenal
Newcastle United
The Lab
- 1Newcastle United: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Arsenal: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- 3Newcastle United with Joe Willock: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Newcastle United: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Arsenal with Noni Madueke: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 3 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
67%
Draw
20%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
33%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis sees Arsenal as clear favorites with a home win probability of 67%
- Newcastle United is in a significant form crisis with 4 losses in their last 5 games
- Arsenal has dominated recent head-to-head matches at home, scoring an average of 2.29 goals
Risk Factors
- Arsenal's goal production has recently stalled at 1.0 compared to a season average of 2.2
- Newcastle United concedes an average of 1.91 goals per away game
- The visitors have conceded an average of 2.6 goals in recent games, compared to 1.68 on season average
Overview
Arsenal (2nd place, 70 points) host Newcastle United (14th place, 42 points) at the Emirates Stadium
Premier League match on April 25, 2026, 6:30 PM
The Gunners are in the title race, while Newcastle is in the mid-table
Form
Arsenal's form in the last five games is LWLDL (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
The last result was a 1-2 loss away against Manchester City
Previously, there was a 0-0 draw at home against Sporting CP
Newcastle United's form in the last five games is WLLLL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)
The team recently lost 1-2 at home against AFC Bournemouth
Before that, there was a 1-2 loss away against Crystal Palace
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Arsenal averages 1.91 goals scored per game and concedes 0.79 goals per game this season
At home, they score 1.89 goals and concede only 0.58 goals per game
Newcastle United averages 1.39 goals scored and concedes 1.48 goals per game
Away from home, Newcastle United concedes an average of 1.91 goals per game
At the Emirates Stadium, an average of 2.0 goals per game were scored in the last five matches
Both teams scored in 2 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, Arsenal secured three wins and Newcastle United two
Arsenal scored a total of 7 goals, while Newcastle United managed 4 goals
The last encounter ended in a 2-1 victory for Arsenal on September 28, 2025
Arsenal has shown dominance in recent encounters
Key Players
For Arsenal, Declan Rice is a key midfielder with 4 season goals and 5 assists
He contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games
Eberechi Eze contributed 6 goals and 2 assists this season
He scored 1 goal in the last 5 games
Kai Havertz is an attacker with 1 season goal and 1 assist
He scored 2 goals in the last 5 games
For Newcastle United, Bruno GuimarĆ£es stands out in midfield with 9 goals and 4 assists this season
He recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games
William Osula contributed 4 season goals as an attacker
He scored 2 goals in the last 5 games
Lewis Miley in midfield provided 1 season goal and 4 assists
He gave 1 assist in the last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Arsenal relies on David Raya, who kept 15 clean sheets in 33 season appearances
For Newcastle United, Nick Pope is in goal, with 8 clean sheets in 22 season appearances
Influences
Arsenal shows strong offensive performance at home with an average of 1.89 goals and solid defense with 0.58 goals conceded per home game
The Emirates Stadium has seen an average of 2.0 goals per game in the last five matches