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Premier League

AFC Bournemouth - Leeds United

04/22/2026, 07:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
AFC Bournemouth
2.4
Total xG
3.7
Leeds United
1.4
Most Likely Scores

2:1

9%

3:1

7%

2:2

6%

1:2

5%

3:0

5%
What influences the xG?
ABLU

AFC Bournemouth

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.19
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.07
Rayan on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)

Leeds United

Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.38
Attack strength (1.55x league average)
+0.30
Rising form (2.3 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.23
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
Lukas Nmecha on the bench (6 goals, 1 assists)
Anton Stach not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Joe Rodon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Leeds United with Wilfried Gnonto: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Leeds United: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 3
    AFC Bournemouth: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    AFC Bournemouth: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    AFC Bournemouth: 56% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 9)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

21%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

90%

Under 1.5

10%

Over 2.5

72%

Under 2.5

28%

Over 3.5

51%

Under 3.5

49%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

69%

No

31%

Key Factors
  • Prediction: The mathematical analysis favors a home win for AFC Bournemouth with a 58% probability and predicts 2.36 expected home goals
  • Away Defensive Weakness: Leeds United shows significant defensive vulnerability in away matches, conceding an average of 2.23 goals per away game
  • Offensive Strength: Both teams have shown strong attacking form recently, with AFC Bournemouth averaging 2.0 goals and Leeds United 2.33 goals and an average of 5.4 shots on target in recent games
Risk Factors
  • Short Recovery Time: Both AFC Bournemouth and Leeds United have had only 4 days of rest since their last match
  • Lower Shots on Target: AFC Bournemouth's average of 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games indicates fewer direct scoring opportunities
  • Away Defensive: Leeds United concedes an average of 2.23 goals per away game
Overview

AFC Bournemouth (9th place, 48 points) host Leeds United (15th place, 39 points) at the Vitality Stadium. This Premier League fixture takes place on April 22, 2026, 8:00 PM. AFC Bournemouth aims to consolidate its mid-table position, while Leeds United seeks to distance themselves from the relegation zone

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

AFC Bournemouth's recent form is DDDWW. They have secured 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 games. Their last result was a win

Leeds United also shows strong recent form with DDDWW. They recorded 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, with their most recent result being a win

Both teams are currently on an unbeaten run of 5 games

Statistics

AFC Bournemouth averages 1.52 goals scored and 1.52 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they score an average of 1.53 goals and concede 1.13 goals

Leeds United averages 1.27 goals scored and 1.48 goals conceded per game this season. In away matches, they score an average of 1.31 goals but concede 2.23 goals

The Vitality Stadium has seen an average of 2.6 total goals per game in its last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games (80%), while 2 out of 5 games (40%) had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

Historically, these two teams have met only once in direct duels. That match, played on September 27, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw

Both teams scored 2 goals each in this single encounter

Key Players

For AFC Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi has scored 10 goals this season and has 2 goals in his last 5 games. Marcus Tavernier contributed 6 goals and 4 assists this season, showing a rising form trend. Alex Scott, with 3 goals and 1 assist, is also in rising form

On Leeds United's side, Dominic Calvert-Lewin leads with 11 goals and 1 assist this season. Noah Okafor has 7 goals and 1 assist, displaying a strong rising form trend with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 games. Brenden Aaronson has provided 4 goals and 5 assists this season, with 2 assists in his last 4 games

Goalkeepers

AFC Bournemouth's goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic has achieved 9 clean sheets this season

For Leeds United, Karl Darlow has recorded 2 clean sheets in 13 away appearances this season

Influences

AFC Bournemouth benefits from playing at home, scoring an average of 1.53 goals and conceding 1.13 goals in home matches. In contrast, Leeds United's away defense concedes an average of 2.23 goals per away game. The Vitality Stadium typically sees 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 80% of matches. The pitch surface is grass

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