Premier League
Fulham - Aston Villa
04/25/2026, 11:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.5
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
8%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Fulham
Aston Villa
The Lab
- 1Aston Villa: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Fulham with Harry Wilson: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Fulham: 7 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Aston Villa: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- 5Aston Villa with Leon Bailey: 12.7 goals/90 min. Without: 2.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
30%
Away Win
34%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
66%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Mathematical analysis suggests a tight game with only a 36% home win probability, 30% for a draw, and 34% for an away win
- Current form: Aston Villa is in top form with four wins and one draw in their last five matches, while Fulham managed only one win in the same period
- Head-to-head: Aston Villa has won all of the last five encounters against Fulham and has been very dominant in these matches
Risk Factors
- Fulham's goal production is currently stalling at an average of 1.0 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.4
- Aston Villa conceded 3 goals in their last match, indicating potential defensive vulnerability
Overview
Fulham (12th place, 45 points) host Aston Villa (4th place, 58 points) at Craven Cottage. Premier League match on April 25, 2026, 12:30 PM. Aston Villa is battling for international places, while Fulham is in the middle of the table.
Form
Fulham's form across all competitions shows L D W L D (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches, with one win, two draws, and two losses. Their last result was a draw.
Aston Villa is in excellent shape with W W D W W in their last five matches, which includes four wins and one draw. Aston Villa has achieved two consecutive wins.
Statistics
Fulham averages 1.30 goals scored per game and concedes 1.39 goals per game this season. In home games, the average is 1.29 goals scored and 0.90 goals conceded. Fulham kept 7 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 19 matches, and 18 matches ended with over 2.5 goals.
Aston Villa scores an average of 1.42 goals per game and concedes 1.24 goals. Away from home, Aston Villa scores an average of 1.43 goals and concedes 1.64 goals. Aston Villa has achieved 9 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 18 matches, and 16 matches had over 2.5 goals.
Analysis of Craven Cottage shows an average of 2.4 total goals per game. Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches, and 3 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters in the Premier League, Aston Villa won all five matches. Fulham lost all encounters.
Aston Villa scored a total of 12 goals, while Fulham managed 4 goals.
The last meeting on September 28, 2025, ended with a 3-1 away victory for Aston Villa. Aston Villa has been dominant in recent head-to-head matches.
Key Players
For Fulham, Harry Wilson (10 goals, 6 assists, Avg. 7.16 rating), RaĂșl JimĂ©nez (9 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 6.93 rating) and Samuel Chukwueze (3 goals, 4 assists, Avg. 6.90 rating) are key players.
For Aston Villa, Ollie Watkins (11 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 6.87 rating), Morgan Rogers (9 goals, 5 assists, Avg. 6.93 rating) and John McGinn (4 goals, 3 assists, Avg. 6.86 rating) stand out.
Goalkeepers
Fulham's goalkeeper, Bernd Leno, made 33 appearances this season and achieved 7 clean sheets with an average rating of 6.76.
For Aston Villa, Emiliano MartĂnez was in goal for 28 matches, recording 9 clean sheets and an average rating of 6.93.
Influences
Fulham averages 1.29 home goals scored and 0.90 home goals conceded at Craven Cottage. Aston Villa scores 1.43 goals away and concedes 1.64 goals.
Craven Cottage has seen an average of 2.4 total goals in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 60% of the matches, and 60% of the matches ended with over 2.5 goals.