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Premier League

Liverpool - Crystal Palace

04/25/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Liverpool
1.9
Total xG
3.1
Crystal Palace
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

1:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LIVCP

Liverpool

Attack strength (1.47x league average)
+0.54
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.32
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.32
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.18
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)
+0.07
Hugo EkitikƩ not in squad (11 goals, 4 assists)
Ryan Gravenberch on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Milos Kerkez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Jeremie Frimpong on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Crystal Palace

Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.04
JĆørgen Strand Larsen on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
YĆ©remy Pino on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Crystal Palace with Daniel MuƱoz: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Liverpool with Mohamed Salah: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Crystal Palace: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Liverpool: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Liverpool: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

25%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

83%

Under 1.5

17%

Over 2.5

60%

Under 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Favorite Role: The mathematical analysis shows a 55% probability of a home win for Liverpool
  • Form Trend: Crystal Palace is currently scoring more frequently with 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average (1.5), while Liverpool's goal production is stagnant at 0.8 goals (season average 1.9)
  • Home Advantage: Liverpool has a stable home defense (0.94 goals conceded per home game) at a venue that sees an average of 3.4 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Head-to-Head Record: The head-to-head record is even with 2 wins for each team and 1 draw
  • Stagnant Goal Production: Liverpool's goal production has recently dropped to 0.8 goals per game, compared to their season average of 1.9 goals per game
  • Opponent's Rising Offensive Power: Crystal Palace is currently scoring more frequently with 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average (1.5)
Overview

Liverpool (5th place, 55 points) host Crystal Palace (13th place, 43 points) at Anfield. The Premier League match takes place on April 25, 2026, 3:00 PM. Liverpool are fighting for the top spots, while Crystal Palace are positioned in the mid-table

Form

Liverpool shows mixed form with LLWLW in all competitions, equating to 2 wins and 3 losses. Goal production has been stagnant recently with an average of 0.8 goals per game, compared to the season average of 1.9 goals per game. Crystal Palace, however, displays better current form with WWWLD, consisting of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Crystal Palace is currently scoring more frequently with 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.5 goals per game

Statistics

Liverpool scores an average of 1.64 goals per game and concedes 1.3 goals per game this season. At home, they score 1.61 goals and concede 0.94 goals per home game. They kept 10 clean sheets in total this season. Crystal Palace scores an average of 1.09 goals per game and concedes 1.13 goals per game. Away from home, they score 1.12 goals and concede 1.0 goals per away game. They recorded 12 clean sheets in total this season. At Anfield, the last 5 games averaged 3.4 goals per match, with both teams scoring in 2 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals scored in 2 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins for Liverpool, 2 wins for Crystal Palace, and 1 draw. The goal difference is even at 5:5 goals. The last encounter was won by Crystal Palace on September 27, 2025, with a score of 2:1. The head-to-head record is considered even

Key Players

For Liverpool, Mohamed Salah with 7 goals and 6 assists at a season rating of 6.88, and Cody Gakpo with 6 goals and 5 assists at a rating of 7.14, are key attacking players. Dominik Szoboszlai contributed 5 goals and 4 assists with a rating of 7.36, but his form is declining. For Crystal Palace, Jean-Philippe Mateta is the top scorer with 10 goals and has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games. IsmaĆÆla Sarr contributed 7 goals and 1 assist. Tyrick Mitchell showed rising form with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Freddie Woodman is listed in the current Liverpool squad as goalkeeper. Liverpool achieved 5 clean sheets in home games this season. For Crystal Palace, Dean Henderson is expected in goal, having made 31 appearances this season and holding an average rating of 6.86. Crystal Palace achieved 5 clean sheets in away games this season

Influences

Liverpool benefits from a stable home defense with an average of 0.94 goals conceded per home game. Anfield stadium has seen an average of 3.4 goals per game in the last 5 matches. In 40% of the last home games, both teams scored, and in 40% of the games, over 2.5 goals were scored. Crystal Palace scores an average of 1.12 goals away from home and concedes 1.0 goals per away game. The surface is grass

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